Peter St. Onge

So a specific bubble pumping itself is not going to cause a recession that will take everything down.

Right.

Like you constantly even during the best boom, you you constantly have little boom bus cycles where investors got excited about something and it didn't turn out the way that they wanted.

I take uranium, for example, or what's happening to gold and silver right now.

So you've always got these little markets that jump up and then go back down.

That doesn't cause a recession.

Historically, what causes a wide economy-wide recession, that is sometimes it can be wars.

It has to be a pretty catastrophic war.

We haven't had one of those in 80 years.

But most of the time, it's the Fed.

So the Fed jacks down interest rates to get a tissue fire going, to get the economy burning bright.

So that politicians can win the next election that creates inflation.

They strangle the inflation by jacking up rates.

So that is the standard story.

It's the 500 year old story of the boom bust is entirely created by governments.

And so, you know, so in other words, there's one possibility that like CapEx crumbles in AI because nobody can turn a profit or whatever.

Okay, so there you would want to trim, but you wouldn't necessarily go over into gold or something defensive.

You would maybe move into the broader market.

Instead of being 40% AI picks and shovels, you reduce that to 20% or whatever the number is.

But at the same time, you want to keep an eye on the possibility that there's a