Peter Tuchman

I mean, I think there was some truth to that because while the market was going down, he was publicly talking to the Federal Reserve chair saying, hey, you should really lower rates. I mean, this wasn't a secret. It wasn't back channels. He was doing it online. So I think it's very clear that that's the outcome that he wanted.

I mean, I think there was some truth to that because while the market was going down, he was publicly talking to the Federal Reserve chair saying, hey, you should really lower rates. I mean, this wasn't a secret. It wasn't back channels. He was doing it online. So I think it's very clear that that's the outcome that he wanted.

The bond market did the opposite as foreign countries started to dump their bonds and probably as part of the tariff war to put him in that spot.

The bond market did the opposite as foreign countries started to dump their bonds and probably as part of the tariff war to put him in that spot.

That's right.

That's right.

No one knows. And I always tell people, if somebody tells you that they know, don't take advice from that person. Nobody knows exactly what the Fed is going to do, where the markets are going to go. It's just too many factors, too many variables.

No one knows. And I always tell people, if somebody tells you that they know, don't take advice from that person. Nobody knows exactly what the Fed is going to do, where the markets are going to go. It's just too many factors, too many variables.

I haven't seen anything like that. I mean, this was incredible. Somebody posted something online. The stock market started to soar a couple of days ago. Then it came out that that person didn't wasn't really correct. Then the market dropped. It just showed. the power of information. If people think anything is reliable, they're looking for that clue, that head start.

I haven't seen anything like that. I mean, this was incredible. Somebody posted something online. The stock market started to soar a couple of days ago. Then it came out that that person didn't wasn't really correct. Then the market dropped. It just showed. the power of information. If people think anything is reliable, they're looking for that clue, that head start.

And Twitter, really, you see so much information come out in real time, whether it's from Republicans or Democrats or economists. But in this case, it wound up being not true and the market's quickly self-corrected. But Twitter is a place where people are going to try to get more information about what's about to happen.

And Twitter, really, you see so much information come out in real time, whether it's from Republicans or Democrats or economists. But in this case, it wound up being not true and the market's quickly self-corrected. But Twitter is a place where people are going to try to get more information about what's about to happen.

It is absolutely crazy, you know, that the person who basically had the button to control the global economy and the markets that day in advance on Twitter said time to buy is just you can't write this stuff. I mean, it's just incredible.

It is absolutely crazy, you know, that the person who basically had the button to control the global economy and the markets that day in advance on Twitter said time to buy is just you can't write this stuff. I mean, it's just incredible.

Well, these predictions, they really almost have to change day to day. I mean, they changed from last Thursday to this Monday. And I think post the announcement that we're not going to have this tariff war with most of the countries on Earth. I would think those recession odds have come down. I mean, there's always a reasonable chance of a recession in the next two years.

Well, these predictions, they really almost have to change day to day. I mean, they changed from last Thursday to this Monday. And I think post the announcement that we're not going to have this tariff war with most of the countries on Earth. I would think those recession odds have come down. I mean, there's always a reasonable chance of a recession in the next two years.

There's always, I think, a 20% chance of that happening, kind of no matter what's going on in the world. I think that the odds are probably still less than 40%, although some people think we're already in a recession. If that's the case, I'll take it. because all things considered, it's a pretty mild one.

There's always, I think, a 20% chance of that happening, kind of no matter what's going on in the world. I think that the odds are probably still less than 40%, although some people think we're already in a recession. If that's the case, I'll take it. because all things considered, it's a pretty mild one.

If unemployment is going to stay under 5% and you're going to still have strong corporate earnings while we're going through a recession, that's not bad. I think that a lot of people think that the Trump administration wants a mild recession, because to your point earlier, that would lead to the Fed lowering interest rates, which would lead

If unemployment is going to stay under 5% and you're going to still have strong corporate earnings while we're going through a recession, that's not bad. I think that a lot of people think that the Trump administration wants a mild recession, because to your point earlier, that would lead to the Fed lowering interest rates, which would lead