Peter Zeihan

I'm home for a change.

Yes, Colorado.

Part of the problem with answering that question is we still don't know what the administration's goals are, so there's no way to judge what success or the end might be.

But let me put out two things just to kind of start the conversation off.

This is the first time the Strait of Hormuz has ever been blocked.

We're looking at a 98% reduction in traffic, which conservatively means that 15 million barrels a day are not getting out today.

We're in day 10, and we're at 150 million barrels total so far.

We've already had 4 million barrels per day of crude be shut in.

So even if the Strait were to open tomorrow, that won't come back on within 60 days.

So there's already enough damage to cause a global energy-induced recession, even if this stops right now.

In natural gas, 20% of global LNG has been blocked.

That all comes out of gutter.

That facility takes even longer to bring back online.

So putting aside Israel and the United States and Iran and the physical damage and the drone war and all of that for the moment, we're already in a global recessionary environment.

Starting point.

Second, the new Supreme Leader is the son of the old one.

And what's the best way to sum this guy up?

He's what Don Jr.

wishes he was.

So he doesn't just have a lot of experience in hiding financial assets behind shell companies.