Peter Zeihan

No, it's like, it's like, I look at Nvidia's, uh, valuation, like, you know, this, I mean, great for them, but you know, this is, this, this is the very definition of a bubble.

All it takes is a couple of corporate thefts and everything that's special about them goes away.

I mean, everything with demographics is glacial.

It takes decades for it to arrive.

And so everyone's just like, you know, hurry up and wait, hurry up and wait.

And then the day it arrives, it's too late because you are now a bloody smear into the glacier.

In the case of Japan, we actually have a culture that saw this coming.

And they have done a number of things over the last 30 years to make it easier to have children, to stay in the workforce longer.

And so their birth rate has actually risen quite a bit, nowhere near replacement levels.

I don't want to oversell it.

But it's now higher than not just China and Japan.

and Taiwan and Germany Italy but also the Netherlands and India and Thailand yeah India India's aging so the math is going in a different direction everyone is still sliding but we're all sliding at a little bit different rates and you play that out over decades and it really matters so China probably with the data we have right now is in the worst shape and after that it's a kind of a three-way tie between or among Germany Italy and Korea most likely

At the moment, most people, when they think about demographics at all, they think about it in terms of federal budgets and the baby boomer retirement and how much it costs to pay for pensions.

And that's part of it, but that's just the leading edge.

The baby boomers are aging out.

The last of them are going to be retired in five years.

And in most of the world, there wasn't an echo generation like the millennials in the United States.

So we really are at the beginning of the end here.

The bottom line is if you still have people in your 30s, you still have a chance to have kids.

So when I look at countries like, say, you know, not just the United States, but Germany, excuse me, not just the United States, like India or Mexico or Poland or Brazil, you know, these are all places that have not passed that Rubicon just yet.