Peter Zeihan

We can critique how successful the transition was and why they were a manufacturing economy and still are and really weren't ready for that kind of fast transition.

Different topic.

But the thing is, when you go to primary school and secondary school and tertiary school, the first time you pay taxes is typically when you're 21, 22, or 23.

So there's a delayed gratification here, which as Americans like to say, the Chinese have no problem with.

It's false, but whatever.

So the first big crop of these new white collar workers who were supposed to be working at high paid jobs and paying lots of taxes, that was supposed to manifest in calendar year 2019.

But then there was COVID.

And in China, COVID lasted a lot longer.

And they really didn't get recovery until 2023, maybe even early in 2024.

And so they didn't get any good data.

And then when they did get the data, they're like, whoa, tax receipts are down.

That's the opposite of what's supposed to be happening.

And when the statisticians in Shanghai went and looked back at everything, they're like, okay.

Here's the problem.

In a first world country, there are dozens, hundreds of touch points where the government becomes convinced that you're a real person.

Your mom goes to neonatal.

You're born.

Every immunization, matriculation for every grade level.

You pay taxes.

You get your driver's permit.