Peter Zeihan

And fertilizer as a category, there's like 11 different kinds, but fertilizer as a mass category, Russians are still the world's largest exporter.

Without that, there is no food production in Brazil at all.

And it looks pretty dicey in the Middle East, North Africa, and especially the South Asian zone.

We haven't had that problem.

Uh, in the meantime, the Americans continue to spin up more and more nitrogen fertilizer because that's primarily made from natural gas.

And the Canadians continue to spin up more and more potash fertilizer because they've got that in Saskatchewan.

So we're seeing other suppliers come into the system.

Uh, they realize that it's a race, uh, and so far that's working out.

Um,

Long term, still a real problem, but we're not facing the acute crunch that we were.

Trump's tariffs are pushing manufactured goods for agriculture the other direction.

Basically,

oversimplifying here, but the more complicated the manufacturing supply chain happens to be, the more steps there are, the more players.

If you have a high tariff system, it pushes your steps out into somewhere else because otherwise you're paying the tariff every time something crosses your border.

And so it's easier to take the handful of the steps that you do and do them somewhere else and just pay the tariff once when the thing comes in finished.

For simple manufactured products that only have a half dozen steps or so, that tends to come to you.

Because that's easier to collate.

So when it comes to things like plastics and textiles and furniture, Trump's tariffs have reshored manufacturing.

But when it comes to aerospace and computing and electronics and automotive, it's pushing stuff away.

And agricultural equipment is definitely in that second category.