Peter Zeihan

They've probably fired somewhere between 2,000 and 3,000 Shaheds at this point, and they have probably exhausted over 80% to 90% of the interceptors that the Gulfies have.

One Pak-3 missile costs $4 million.

One Shahed costs $40,000 to $50,000.

The United States can make about 700 Pak-3 interceptors in a year.

The Iranians can make about 700 Shaheds in a week.

So we are literally days away from there being no interceptors.

And while you can't hit a moving ship with a Shahed, you can absolutely hit a pumping station or an oil field or a refinery or a loading platform.

And so there's a very, very real possibility here.

in the very short-term future, that we just lose the Persian Gulf as a significant source of hydrocarbons from the world.

And that's a lot worse than an energy recession.

And that will absolutely change the nature of the relationship of everyone with Iran and with the Gulfies and with Israel and with the United States.

And that might happen this week.

At the moment...

Hormuz is closed, but the oil facilities are physically intact.

What I'm suggesting is we might cross the Rubicon on the oil facilities very, very soon because the strategy that we have to defend against the Shahids requires ammo that is available in very, very limited supply that cannot be replenished and is very, very expensive.

We've basically ignored the lessons of the Ukraine war.

And Iran's cost-benefit ratio here is quite robust when it comes to targeting these things.

Well, let's break it into two categories here.

If you talk missiles, there you need a 50-ton truck that is specially modified in order to take the missile in the first place and get into position to fire.

Launch capability.