Phil Fernbach

And in fact, it turned out that he had tested the method by taking a Polaroid of himself and And making sure that his face was indeed invisible to the Polaroid camera. It's never been discovered why the Polaroid didn't show his face. But one possibility is that he missed because his eyes were filled with lemon juice.

it's been well documented that people tend to be very overconfident in their capabilities in terms of beating the market. Um, and that can lead to really disastrous outcomes. Like people take on too much risk. Um, and it actually turns out that the more people actively trade, the worse they do.

it's been well documented that people tend to be very overconfident in their capabilities in terms of beating the market. Um, and that can lead to really disastrous outcomes. Like people take on too much risk. Um, and it actually turns out that the more people actively trade, the worse they do.

it's been well documented that people tend to be very overconfident in their capabilities in terms of beating the market. Um, and that can lead to really disastrous outcomes. Like people take on too much risk. Um, and it actually turns out that the more people actively trade, the worse they do.

And active trading is sort of a, an indicator of being overconfident in your ability to, to beat the market. Um, this is a paper that I wrote with, um, Dan Walters and, um, What we found in this paper is that one reason for the overconfidence, the reason that people feel that they can beat the market, is because they tend to remember the good outcomes and forget the bad outcomes.

And active trading is sort of a, an indicator of being overconfident in your ability to, to beat the market. Um, this is a paper that I wrote with, um, Dan Walters and, um, What we found in this paper is that one reason for the overconfidence, the reason that people feel that they can beat the market, is because they tend to remember the good outcomes and forget the bad outcomes.

And active trading is sort of a, an indicator of being overconfident in your ability to, to beat the market. Um, this is a paper that I wrote with, um, Dan Walters and, um, What we found in this paper is that one reason for the overconfidence, the reason that people feel that they can beat the market, is because they tend to remember the good outcomes and forget the bad outcomes.

So if I make a trade and I do great on it, that one's gonna stick in my memory more so than when I make a trade and it does poorly. That's not to say that if you have a really disastrous trade that you're not gonna remember that. You certainly would. But on average, you're going to tend to inflate the good over the bad.

So if I make a trade and I do great on it, that one's gonna stick in my memory more so than when I make a trade and it does poorly. That's not to say that if you have a really disastrous trade that you're not gonna remember that. You certainly would. But on average, you're going to tend to inflate the good over the bad.

So if I make a trade and I do great on it, that one's gonna stick in my memory more so than when I make a trade and it does poorly. That's not to say that if you have a really disastrous trade that you're not gonna remember that. You certainly would. But on average, you're going to tend to inflate the good over the bad.

And one reason for that is because we tend to remember the things that help us maintain a positive self-image. We want to believe that we're smart and good at investing. That's a very natural human tendency to want to remember the good and kind of forget the bad. And so this doesn't just occur in the domain of investing, but can occur in other domains as well.

And one reason for that is because we tend to remember the things that help us maintain a positive self-image. We want to believe that we're smart and good at investing. That's a very natural human tendency to want to remember the good and kind of forget the bad. And so this doesn't just occur in the domain of investing, but can occur in other domains as well.

And one reason for that is because we tend to remember the things that help us maintain a positive self-image. We want to believe that we're smart and good at investing. That's a very natural human tendency to want to remember the good and kind of forget the bad. And so this doesn't just occur in the domain of investing, but can occur in other domains as well.

Yes, and that is what made me so passionate about these ideas. Because it turns out that the reason that we should care about this illusion is not because people don't understand how a ballpoint pen or a toilet works. But I realized at some point that the illusion applies to just about everything that we grapple with as a society and as individuals. I was doing this work

Yes, and that is what made me so passionate about these ideas. Because it turns out that the reason that we should care about this illusion is not because people don't understand how a ballpoint pen or a toilet works. But I realized at some point that the illusion applies to just about everything that we grapple with as a society and as individuals. I was doing this work

Yes, and that is what made me so passionate about these ideas. Because it turns out that the reason that we should care about this illusion is not because people don't understand how a ballpoint pen or a toilet works. But I realized at some point that the illusion applies to just about everything that we grapple with as a society and as individuals. I was doing this work

in the midst of a political environment in the United States that was becoming more and more polarized. And as I was doing this work, I had this big insight that, wow, we are arguing with incredible vitriol across the aisle about issues that are extremely complex and that nobody understands in a lot of depth and detail.

in the midst of a political environment in the United States that was becoming more and more polarized. And as I was doing this work, I had this big insight that, wow, we are arguing with incredible vitriol across the aisle about issues that are extremely complex and that nobody understands in a lot of depth and detail.

in the midst of a political environment in the United States that was becoming more and more polarized. And as I was doing this work, I had this big insight that, wow, we are arguing with incredible vitriol across the aisle about issues that are extremely complex and that nobody understands in a lot of depth and detail.

And yet we have these passionate, strong views and are unable to compromise across the political divide. And that was a core issue that really got me interested in this stuff.