Phil Fernbach

Yes. So there's been a lot of research in the psychology literature on overconfidence. People tend to be overconfident in a lot of different ways. The reason for overconfidence is what's called confirmation bias. That is, we're preferentially disposed to find evidence for the position that we start with, the one that we want.

Yes. So there's been a lot of research in the psychology literature on overconfidence. People tend to be overconfident in a lot of different ways. The reason for overconfidence is what's called confirmation bias. That is, we're preferentially disposed to find evidence for the position that we start with, the one that we want.

Yes. So there's been a lot of research in the psychology literature on overconfidence. People tend to be overconfident in a lot of different ways. The reason for overconfidence is what's called confirmation bias. That is, we're preferentially disposed to find evidence for the position that we start with, the one that we want.

Some of the work that I've done is looking at another reason that we're overconfident. It's not just because we tend to preferentially weight the evidence for our positions, but also that we tend to neglect all of the unknown information. And that's part and parcel of all of the themes that we've been talking about today, that the world just seems simpler than it is.

Some of the work that I've done is looking at another reason that we're overconfident. It's not just because we tend to preferentially weight the evidence for our positions, but also that we tend to neglect all of the unknown information. And that's part and parcel of all of the themes that we've been talking about today, that the world just seems simpler than it is.

Some of the work that I've done is looking at another reason that we're overconfident. It's not just because we tend to preferentially weight the evidence for our positions, but also that we tend to neglect all of the unknown information. And that's part and parcel of all of the themes that we've been talking about today, that the world just seems simpler than it is.

If the world seems simpler and we're confronted with an issue, then we're going to tend not to think about all of the stuff that we don't know. we're going to tend to think about the stuff that we do know. And if we thought about all the stuff that we don't know, it would make us more moderate in our positions because, wow, there's a lot more to know about this.

If the world seems simpler and we're confronted with an issue, then we're going to tend not to think about all of the stuff that we don't know. we're going to tend to think about the stuff that we do know. And if we thought about all the stuff that we don't know, it would make us more moderate in our positions because, wow, there's a lot more to know about this.

If the world seems simpler and we're confronted with an issue, then we're going to tend not to think about all of the stuff that we don't know. we're going to tend to think about the stuff that we do know. And if we thought about all the stuff that we don't know, it would make us more moderate in our positions because, wow, there's a lot more to know about this.

What we find is that when people search the internet for financial information, they become overconfident in their knowledge. And not only do they become overconfident in their knowledge, but that leads to downstream behaviors like taking on more risk.

What we find is that when people search the internet for financial information, they become overconfident in their knowledge. And not only do they become overconfident in their knowledge, but that leads to downstream behaviors like taking on more risk.

What we find is that when people search the internet for financial information, they become overconfident in their knowledge. And not only do they become overconfident in their knowledge, but that leads to downstream behaviors like taking on more risk.

This has been a really fun conversation, Shankar. Thank you so much.

This has been a really fun conversation, Shankar. Thank you so much.

This has been a really fun conversation, Shankar. Thank you so much.

I was sitting on an aisle and I will never forget the way that it felt to try to sit still. It was impossible. I couldn't stop moving. The strength of the emotions was so intense. I really stood out and I felt like people were avoiding eye contact with me. They weren't really sure what to do with me. And partway through the flight,

I was sitting on an aisle and I will never forget the way that it felt to try to sit still. It was impossible. I couldn't stop moving. The strength of the emotions was so intense. I really stood out and I felt like people were avoiding eye contact with me. They weren't really sure what to do with me. And partway through the flight,

I was sitting on an aisle and I will never forget the way that it felt to try to sit still. It was impossible. I couldn't stop moving. The strength of the emotions was so intense. I really stood out and I felt like people were avoiding eye contact with me. They weren't really sure what to do with me. And partway through the flight,

this man came up to me I was sitting on the aisle on the right side of the plane so he came up to me and he crouched down next to me on my left side and he was so gentle he made direct eye contact with me and he spoke softly and slowly and he was really sincere and

this man came up to me I was sitting on the aisle on the right side of the plane so he came up to me and he crouched down next to me on my left side and he was so gentle he made direct eye contact with me and he spoke softly and slowly and he was really sincere and