Phil Fernbach

And that determination can be pretty challenging because to take a position on an issue, it's just not practical to study it as if you were going to get a PhD in that topic.

At the same time, to jump to some really strong opinion based on nothing, based on, you know, having read half of one article or seen one post on Twitter—

That's also really bad, right?

So what we need to be able to do is find some common ground, some middle path, as you said.

And exactly where that middle path lies, that determination is a pretty tricky one.

But if we get in the habit of trying to aim for somewhere in the middle of that distribution, I think that people are pretty reasonable and we can do it.

So having a little more discrimination and deliberation than we normally do, but not going so far to think that we need to know everything about a topic or an issue before we have a position on it.

Somewhere in the middle, you're going to be better off than where you are right now.

I think absolutely.

And this is a habit that I've gotten in myself, which is practicing checking your understanding.

Nevio asked if there's a way to stop the illusion.

I don't think there's a way to stop the illusion.

What I think we can do is we can experience the illusion and then we can mentally calibrate after we've experienced it.

So when I jump to a strong position on something,

I can habitually ask myself after that to try to explain, to really test whether I know what I'm talking about.

And then when you notice that there's a big gap,

sort of make a mental note of that.

Maybe even write it down and see how many times that's occurring over the course of your day.

And I still, you know, I've been studying this topic for many, many years.

And I can promise your listeners that I fall for this all the time still.