Philippe Laffont

I need to ask you guys a question. What was the most fun? The Friday, the Saturday, or the day of the race?

I need to ask you guys a question. What was the most fun? The Friday, the Saturday, or the day of the race?

I was in the nightclub till 5 a.m.

I was in the nightclub till 5 a.m.

Let's do the show. Come on.

Let's do the show. Come on.

Yeah, well, it hasn't been a boring year, has it? So I would say on the Fed, right, a lot of people are saying, oh, you know, the Fed should cut and this and that. I actually think that there's also the scenario that what if the Fed is cutting because things are not so great? Maybe that's actually not a good message. And what if the Fed is not cutting because actually the economy is really strong?

Yeah, well, it hasn't been a boring year, has it? So I would say on the Fed, right, a lot of people are saying, oh, you know, the Fed should cut and this and that. I actually think that there's also the scenario that what if the Fed is cutting because things are not so great? Maybe that's actually not a good message. And what if the Fed is not cutting because actually the economy is really strong?

And so I think that the Fed not cutting is actually not that bad of a message. And I'm surprised just in general at how bad sentiment is, but how good the hard data is. And we have this ratio at CO2 where we sort of divide hard news as a numerator and sentiment as a denominator. And it's the first time where the news is so good and the sentiment is so bad. And I don't know if the sentiment is bad.

And so I think that the Fed not cutting is actually not that bad of a message. And I'm surprised just in general at how bad sentiment is, but how good the hard data is. And we have this ratio at CO2 where we sort of divide hard news as a numerator and sentiment as a denominator. And it's the first time where the news is so good and the sentiment is so bad. And I don't know if the sentiment is bad.

because just the market went down a lot or for other reasons. But I actually think the economy is doing really well. And we also learned two really important things. One is when the market did go down a lot, the government did budge and said, hey, we need to step in here. And the second part is the Fed did something that I thought was very clever.

because just the market went down a lot or for other reasons. But I actually think the economy is doing really well. And we also learned two really important things. One is when the market did go down a lot, the government did budge and said, hey, we need to step in here. And the second part is the Fed did something that I thought was very clever.

They basically said, we're not going to cut just to bail out the equity market, but if the market's liquidity is no longer functioning, emphasis on liquidity, then we'll step in to restore liquidity. And I think those two things really brought the market back up. I think it's more a little bit the case of a tariff correction or a tariff tantrum, but not a tariff crisis.

They basically said, we're not going to cut just to bail out the equity market, but if the market's liquidity is no longer functioning, emphasis on liquidity, then we'll step in to restore liquidity. And I think those two things really brought the market back up. I think it's more a little bit the case of a tariff correction or a tariff tantrum, but not a tariff crisis.

So on the hard data... The part that's most surprising is that consumers have very weak sentiment. But in the meantime, consumer spending is remarkably resilient. And you can see this in a number of ways. You can look at the Visa and MasterCard earnings. But I also like just to listen to little quotes, little tidbits that you pick up in the transcripts of transactions.

So on the hard data... The part that's most surprising is that consumers have very weak sentiment. But in the meantime, consumer spending is remarkably resilient. And you can see this in a number of ways. You can look at the Visa and MasterCard earnings. But I also like just to listen to little quotes, little tidbits that you pick up in the transcripts of transactions.

of companies reporting earnings and stuff. And people will say like, even in the month of April, consumer spending is very strong. And even in the last week, when we adjust for the front loading, some people are pre-buying ahead of the tariffs. Even when we strip that out, consumer's really good. So I think the part that to me is most surprising, consumer's great.

of companies reporting earnings and stuff. And people will say like, even in the month of April, consumer spending is very strong. And even in the last week, when we adjust for the front loading, some people are pre-buying ahead of the tariffs. Even when we strip that out, consumer's really good. So I think the part that to me is most surprising, consumer's great.

With respect to sentiment, it's really bad. But one thing that's funny is whenever the market goes down, sentiment is bad. And so I don't think sentiment is necessarily a good leading indicator. I almost think it's like a lagging indicator. I bet you that now that the market's gone up, we look at sentiment in a month from now, and it'll be like, oh, sentiment's getting better.

With respect to sentiment, it's really bad. But one thing that's funny is whenever the market goes down, sentiment is bad. And so I don't think sentiment is necessarily a good leading indicator. I almost think it's like a lagging indicator. I bet you that now that the market's gone up, we look at sentiment in a month from now, and it'll be like, oh, sentiment's getting better.