Pierre Ferragou
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Hey, Gaola, yes, that's a great question.
So I think so.
ASML basically confirmed what everybody suspected, that 2026 is going to be a great year.
Now you have to take a step back and think, what does that mean a great year?
The guided revenue growth,
between 4% and 19%, which in absolute terms is very strong growth.
As you mentioned, the bookings, we've never seen that level of orders at the SML exceeding 13 billion in a single quarter.
Now when you take a step back, think about what is the downstream of ASML, who are the clients?
It's a Micron, it's a Hynix, it's a Samsung, it's a TSMC.
And these players are actually growing much, much faster than that.
They are growing, like if you take for instance TSMC, it's probably going to grow like between 30 and 35% this year.
So we already see that semi-cap equipment starts lagging a bit their clients in terms of growth.
And that's a very natural thing because they sell equipment to add capacity.
And when you look at the trajectory of growth of AI, we are actually just passing the inflection point.
Going forward, growth is going to continue to be very strong.
But it is going to slow.
And so it's going to translate into slower growth at semi-cap equipment manufacturers.
And I really think this is the way the street is digesting the news today and overnight.
Initially, the stock was up.
And now the street is realizing, OK, but if 2026 is a peak spending year, maybe it's time to actually take profits on ASML as a stock.