Pjotr Sauer

So for the long term, this is obviously disastrous for Russia.

But Putin believes, and he's probably right, that for the next year or two, he can still spend on the war, but he will have to cut in other sectors.

One of the more shocking reports in recent weeks was cited by some media.

It was a Western intelligence report, unnamed officials, who said that potentially Putin's former defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, could lead a coup against Putin.

You know, everyone I talk to finds that opposition highly unlikely.

Those who know Shoigu told me he's isolated, he's not very popular in the army, and he's not really a likely candidate.

But, you know, again, Russia can still surprise you.

Three years ago, there was a march in Moscow by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

a Wagner mercenary leader who came close to Moscow and it was eventually stopped.

But I think for any coup to happen, I think we first need to see Putin weakened, both physically, potentially, and also mentally.

And right now he still looks in control.

Right now we seem to be in a stage of acceptance rather than active coup planning.

So I think the West shouldn't get their hopes up that there's a coup happening at any moment.

Piotr, thank you so much.

Thank you.

That was Pyotr Sauer.

I really recommend the long read that he did on Putin's drop in popularity.

He wrote it along with Sean Walker, another Today in Focus favourite.

It's headlined, There is profound disappointment in him.

Mood in Russia turns against Putin.