Preston Stewart

They do have these mobile counter drone teams, but not enough for what they have to protect.

And I think if this same situation was playing out, maybe in Belgorod or Kursk, other territories of Russia, it wouldn't have the same impact.

But it really isn't all that hard to, with drones, at least significantly disrupt the flow of supplies and personnel into Crimea.

I think it's multifaceted, but it is playing out right now.

I mean, you can see Russia struggling with the decision here.

This is why I think we're in a really unique phase in this war because you can pretty clearly see how one leads to two leads to three.

And I don't think it's the loss of Crimea or the isolation of Crimea.

I think that's just part of what is playing out here, which is the isolation of the southern occupied territories.

So to get supplies to the front, there's only a few ways to do that.

And it's essentially through Crimea in the south or through Rostov-on-Don in the east.

And while Ukraine is isolating the peninsula, they're also hitting those supply roads in the south.

There was a report from a Russian correspondent a few days ago that there was no fuel at gas stations between, I want to say, Donetsk City and Rostov-on-Don.

Those are areas...

especially as you go further east, that's traditional Russia.

That is Russian territory, not something they took from Ukraine anytime, even since 2014.

So it's getting harder for Russia to bring supplies forward, and that is just a matter of time for the front to hold on.

You just cannot have troops at the front for very long if you can't get them water, if you can't get them food, if you can't get them fuel, and you can't get resupplies.

Now, it doesn't require going to zero, but if that drops from 100% of what they want to –

I mean, Chad, you probably have some insight here, but I don't know, 70%, 80% and offensive operations are off the table.

If that drops to 40 or 50%, you might have to withdraw those troops because they can't be sustained.