Professor Gary Marcus

So when they say 2032, they really mean it could happen this year.

It could happen in three years.

It could happen in nine years.

If you listen to the experts, you know, Elon Musk is saying, yeah, it could happen in 2026.

If you want my personal opinion, I just agree.

I think it could happen in one year to five years.

If it doesn't happen in 10 years, I start to get surprised because even people who have traditionally been pessimists are now saying it'll probably happen within like 10 years.

Yeah, so the meter benchmark that you're referring to, it is very interesting, and it's talking about the dimension of task length.

So can an AI work for two hours straight, or rather, can it do a task that would traditionally take a human two hours to do, like write a software program, like a simple checkers game or whatever?

Can the AI also do that?

And if a human can do it in two hours, can the AI also do it with 80% reliability?

So it gets the mess up a little bit.

And that time length, like two hours, it's turning into four hours.

We're roughly at this point where if a human can do something in four hours, an AI can do it with maybe 80% reliability if you run it now.

And maybe the AI will even do it faster than the human.

Like that's roughly where we are right now.

But to your question, have I been following this for the last 20 years?

Because I have been

a self-described AI doomer for the last 20 years.

But the difference is that I used to think we had a lot of time.