Rachel Lavin

There has been a few false starts so far with the ceasefire.

But even if there is a ceasefire, if we go...

into Iran and look at their production capabilities.

Has Karag Island been damaged?

Has their production been damaged?

Can they restart the flow of oil that is coming from Iran but also through the Gulf as easily as before?

There could be major damage to their facilities that lingers in terms of global supply.

Particularly when it's being run by the regime.

I mean...

We will find out after a ceasefire when we follow the flow and the movement of ships through the strait.

But there could be damage in Iran that has a long-term effect.

I don't want to be too negative, though.

I mean, there's certain hard deadlines, I guess, for this conflict.

Israel has election in September.

The US has elections in November.

Iran is running out of money.

So Iran needs the oil to get going.

The regime needs to get this oil flowing again.

So hopefully that will lead to a ceasefire, but we'll have to wait and see what the long-term effects are.

Yeah.