Ray Dalio

It was the government that was the big buyer. Then you get everybody leveraging up. Then you've got a problem. Do you own Bitcoin, Ray? Yeah, I have some. Not nearly as much as gold. The AI war, it's a war that no country can lose. If China or the US really lose this war, it's more important than profits. We're at a civil war internally and we're at an international war simultaneously.

Just have people behave logically. Maybe that's too much to ask. We hope.

Just have people behave logically. Maybe that's too much to ask. We hope.

Thanks for having me here to talk about this important issue.

Thanks for having me here to talk about this important issue.

through my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I would, um, keep to myself. And then now I'm 75 and I want to pass along the things that have helped me and, um, The bond markets, global bond markets, I've been involved with all over the world for a long time. And there's a mechanical process which is not understood about the question, when is enough debt? When does it matter?

through my roughly 50 years of being a global macro investor, I would, um, keep to myself. And then now I'm 75 and I want to pass along the things that have helped me and, um, The bond markets, global bond markets, I've been involved with all over the world for a long time. And there's a mechanical process which is not understood about the question, when is enough debt? When does it matter?

How does it work mechanistically? And I feel compelled to get that understanding out now. How do the mechanics work? for countries, for the United States, for other reserve countries. I want to make sure that's understood.

How does it work mechanistically? And I feel compelled to get that understanding out now. How do the mechanics work? for countries, for the United States, for other reserve countries. I want to make sure that's understood.

You know, Bridgewater and I, up until my Passing along Bridgewater maybe a little over a year ago has been indistinguishable, you know, and the same. And over through that period of time, we've been involved in the markets. I've been involved in the markets and thinking about such things. So the data is largely public data that's available for anybody.

You know, Bridgewater and I, up until my Passing along Bridgewater maybe a little over a year ago has been indistinguishable, you know, and the same. And over through that period of time, we've been involved in the markets. I've been involved in the markets and thinking about such things. So the data is largely public data that's available for anybody.

We just, you know, collect it from all different spots and go back through history like I did in Changing World Order. We were in some cases in the Changing World Order because we were dealing with data that was hundreds of years ago. We would go through archives and pull data out. The data is all available to everyone.

We just, you know, collect it from all different spots and go back through history like I did in Changing World Order. We were in some cases in the Changing World Order because we were dealing with data that was hundreds of years ago. We would go through archives and pull data out. The data is all available to everyone.

Yeah, and I want to emphasize, just based on what you said, that they're mechanical. They can watch. You can watch it. You can do the calculations. So if you read the book, you can see these. It'll even make common sense to you. You see the calculations. To me, it's almost like

Yeah, and I want to emphasize, just based on what you said, that they're mechanical. They can watch. You can watch it. You can do the calculations. So if you read the book, you can see these. It'll even make common sense to you. You see the calculations. To me, it's almost like

The circulatory system, you know, I think that credit is like blood that brings nutrients to all of the parts of the body. And it passes through a system that is like arteries. And then credit creates debt. And the key question, if it's healthy, is does the debt create an income that is more than enough to service the debt? And that's like, I don't know, eating vegetables or something.

The circulatory system, you know, I think that credit is like blood that brings nutrients to all of the parts of the body. And it passes through a system that is like arteries. And then credit creates debt. And the key question, if it's healthy, is does the debt create an income that is more than enough to service the debt? And that's like, I don't know, eating vegetables or something.

It's a healthy process. And if not, credit... begins to build up this debt, it begins to become like plaque in the arteries. And you can measure it just like you could measure it in the arteries. And you can see how it constricts that circulatory system because as credit and debt service rise, you see that it eats up more and more consumption because you have to spend that.

It's a healthy process. And if not, credit... begins to build up this debt, it begins to become like plaque in the arteries. And you can measure it just like you could measure it in the arteries. And you can see how it constricts that circulatory system because as credit and debt service rise, you see that it eats up more and more consumption because you have to spend that.

So you could watch the government do that. You can see that how interest is eating up and debt service is eating up and that means there's less money. And then you also can see how heart attacks take place. And they're very, you know, economic debt heart attacks. And the way they take place is by looking at the supply and the demand.