Ray Dalio

So in the book, I write out, yeah, there's like a disease, like a cancer.

You see stage one, two, three, four.

If you have these things, you could look at it and you could diagnose.

And you see it moving from stage one to two to three to four to five and to six.

You could see that taking place.

And each time you come closer to a bad set of circumstances, bad financial circumstances and bad fighting over things.

The dominoes are beginning to fall.

I mean, okay, you know what the next dominoes are, and you can imagine the anonymous.

So, for example, they're not going to buy the debt.

A lot of them are not.

Those who bought the debt and have too much debt and have debt losses are

on government debt are not going to buy more of that debt, for example.

And therefore, when the government sells more of the debt, there's not going to be an adequate number of buyers for that debt.

You know that those who are hurting because they have those losses won't make loans.

And a lot of those loans went to real estate, particularly commercial real estate.

and you know that for various reasons in commercial real estate that you're um we don't use it the same way and so on so you're going to have problems in commercial real estate you know that this kind of money was also fine financing

venture capital and private equity entities that also have cash flow problems, challenges.

And so you know that that funding is not going to be there in the same way.

you know as a result of these things that a number of entities will cut costs and in their various ways and so depending on the on that the job market is changing and you know you see it for example in tech jobs and and other you know if you're in some of those areas that are getting squeezed

And you see the same thing, by and large, happening internationally.