Ray Dalio

The real question, as you play with the numbers, is it's very, very difficult to know and be precise about how much is going to come from productivity and profit increases, from the efficiencies gained by AI and new technologies, how much is going to come from this and that. We don't honestly know. But the important thing is not to, we're at the edge, and not to make it a crapshoot.

And to get the, the number must be 3%. And so you should have handle, not Hail Mary passes, but a clear passage to that 3% number.

And to get the, the number must be 3%. And so you should have handle, not Hail Mary passes, but a clear passage to that 3% number.

Yes, I do believe we are in the financial context, because in terms of profitability and the likelihood of cutting, I think the Republicans are probably more likely to make these moves than Democrats. the Democrats, but you also have to take into consideration the impacts, the social impacts and the other impacts that are going to come from this.

Yes, I do believe we are in the financial context, because in terms of profitability and the likelihood of cutting, I think the Republicans are probably more likely to make these moves than Democrats. the Democrats, but you also have to take into consideration the impacts, the social impacts and the other impacts that are going to come from this.

We're at a civil war internally and we're at an international war simultaneously. So there are second order effects. I think the main thing is take those numbers and make them real at 3%, not speculating. I worry honestly about the gap like the idea of when profits kick in from AI.

We're at a civil war internally and we're at an international war simultaneously. So there are second order effects. I think the main thing is take those numbers and make them real at 3%, not speculating. I worry honestly about the gap like the idea of when profits kick in from AI.

That's right. But there are two dimensions. The near term is... I don't think the profit impact and the financial impact on productivity is going to be nearly enough, near enough to deal with the supply-demand issue that we now have. So let's say, is it this year? Is it next year? Just imagine you are at risk of a heart attack.

That's right. But there are two dimensions. The near term is... I don't think the profit impact and the financial impact on productivity is going to be nearly enough, near enough to deal with the supply-demand issue that we now have. So let's say, is it this year? Is it next year? Just imagine you are at risk of a heart attack.

You know, and then I say someday we'll have the productivity conveyed to profits that will cover the budget deficit. OK, it may be out there, but it's not as immediate as it needs to be. And then we have the other aspect of it, which is how is that pie divided, which is going to be very political because the disruptive effects will be enormous.

You know, and then I say someday we'll have the productivity conveyed to profits that will cover the budget deficit. OK, it may be out there, but it's not as immediate as it needs to be. And then we have the other aspect of it, which is how is that pie divided, which is going to be very political because the disruptive effects will be enormous.

And we're really all guessing on how those disruptive effects will be. It's too much of a... But you're absolutely right. Lots of jobs are going to be lost. Lots of change is going to happen in terms of turbulence. And how do we have a plan? How can we even agree on a plan of how to deal with that? I don't think we're in a time...

And we're really all guessing on how those disruptive effects will be. It's too much of a... But you're absolutely right. Lots of jobs are going to be lost. Lots of change is going to happen in terms of turbulence. And how do we have a plan? How can we even agree on a plan of how to deal with that? I don't think we're in a time...

maybe in the rest of our lifetimes, that agreement is going to be easy. I think we're going to see fragmentation of states from the central government. I think you're going to see big fragmentation in the world, not just in the United States, on the failure to agree on most things. And so I'm worried about the timeline. Think of the timeline as this way. There's the first hundred days.

maybe in the rest of our lifetimes, that agreement is going to be easy. I think we're going to see fragmentation of states from the central government. I think you're going to see big fragmentation in the world, not just in the United States, on the failure to agree on most things. And so I'm worried about the timeline. Think of the timeline as this way. There's the first hundred days.

We're in a honeymoon period. I've been through, I'm old, you know, I've been through this a long time. I know what the honeymoon is like right afterwards. There's a hundred days that you can change legislation. You move quickly and everybody's there. Then there's the next important time horizon is two years to the midterm elections. You get in about years, you know, 18 months after the election.

We're in a honeymoon period. I've been through, I'm old, you know, I've been through this a long time. I know what the honeymoon is like right afterwards. There's a hundred days that you can change legislation. You move quickly and everybody's there. Then there's the next important time horizon is two years to the midterm elections. You get in about years, you know, 18 months after the election.

And not everybody goes, everything goes as anyone expects. You could have this supply-demand situation. And think of our cycle. I mentioned, you know, the average cycle is about six years, give or take three years. And so we're going to be later into the cycle. We have this supply demand situation. Are things going to stay good into the midterm elections and that mandate?

And not everybody goes, everything goes as anyone expects. You could have this supply-demand situation. And think of our cycle. I mentioned, you know, the average cycle is about six years, give or take three years. And so we're going to be later into the cycle. We have this supply demand situation. Are things going to stay good into the midterm elections and that mandate?

I think there could be a lot of fighting in the midterm elections.