Ray Dalio

And so internally within countries, we have the same kind of conflict. You're seeing it happen in Europe. You're seeing the same dynamic. We talk about the problems that the United States is having regarding debt and so on. You have then the expense, same problem within Europe. You're seeing greater polarity, left, right. You're seeing economic... problems cause more confrontation.

And so you're seeing this around the world. So you're coming into an environment that is likely to have over a period of time, over a period of time, not immediately, greater conflict. When you talk about 10 years, there's going to be a period in that 10-year period where it's going to be hellacious.

And so you're seeing this around the world. So you're coming into an environment that is likely to have over a period of time, over a period of time, not immediately, greater conflict. When you talk about 10 years, there's going to be a period in that 10-year period where it's going to be hellacious.

in that 10 year period where the coordination of dealing with our problems, our problems will be greater and the cooperation for dealing with problems will be less.

in that 10 year period where the coordination of dealing with our problems, our problems will be greater and the cooperation for dealing with problems will be less.

There's a cycle that has to do with changes in money and all of these things, where you don't have enough money You need money to support international conflict. You need money to make domestic people happy. And then there's no power. You know, there's no system for making judgments internationally. The United Nations doesn't work. The World Health Organization, they don't work.

There's a cycle that has to do with changes in money and all of these things, where you don't have enough money You need money to support international conflict. You need money to make domestic people happy. And then there's no power. You know, there's no system for making judgments internationally. The United Nations doesn't work. The World Health Organization, they don't work.

So there's no system. So you come into this power. So when we're talking about the financial problems that we're talking about, that we covered earlier, and recognize that that's worldwide. And then you have the polarity worldwide that has to do with different wealth and values. And you have that problem within the population. And then you have no rule system internationally.

So there's no system. So you come into this power. So when we're talking about the financial problems that we're talking about, that we covered earlier, and recognize that that's worldwide. And then you have the polarity worldwide that has to do with different wealth and values. And you have that problem within the population. And then you have no rule system internationally.

So it is a might is right series. You have that confluence of things, particularly And then there's disruptions, big disruptions. Technology, we talked about how you can't lose the technology war because you'll lose the military war. All of that stress and shortage of what is perceived to be needed is incendiary. It's a risky situation. Of course, productivity helps, but it was like...

So it is a might is right series. You have that confluence of things, particularly And then there's disruptions, big disruptions. Technology, we talked about how you can't lose the technology war because you'll lose the military war. All of that stress and shortage of what is perceived to be needed is incendiary. It's a risky situation. Of course, productivity helps, but it was like...

You have to understand and put it in its place. The 1920s leading up to the stock market bubble, that was the decade that we had the greatest number of inventions, patents, innovation, great productivity increases while we simultaneously had big debt increases and we simultaneously had these wealth gap and values increases. And so you don't get away from that.

You have to understand and put it in its place. The 1920s leading up to the stock market bubble, that was the decade that we had the greatest number of inventions, patents, innovation, great productivity increases while we simultaneously had big debt increases and we simultaneously had these wealth gap and values increases. And so you don't get away from that.

So this is going to be a lot of tension in a world where it's difficult to get all the parties to cooperate. In wars, if you look at history, when I say wars, there are military wars, and then there's less than military wars. And I can't tell you that we're going to go into military wars. I think like the Soviet Union and the United States, because of the risk of mass destruction-

So this is going to be a lot of tension in a world where it's difficult to get all the parties to cooperate. In wars, if you look at history, when I say wars, there are military wars, and then there's less than military wars. And I can't tell you that we're going to go into military wars. I think like the Soviet Union and the United States, because of the risk of mass destruction-

was able to avoid those. But in history, it's going to be a very difficult period.

was able to avoid those. But in history, it's going to be a very difficult period.

Yeah. The general belief of the Chinese on the art of war, and this has existed for throughout and it exists today is that if you're going into a fighting war, you must not have been smart enough to win without a fighting war. And you win through deception and manipulation because fighting wars are going to damage you a lot. You don't want to be damaged. You want to get to your objective.

Yeah. The general belief of the Chinese on the art of war, and this has existed for throughout and it exists today is that if you're going into a fighting war, you must not have been smart enough to win without a fighting war. And you win through deception and manipulation because fighting wars are going to damage you a lot. You don't want to be damaged. You want to get to your objective.

So that's how they fight wars. That sounds like a smart way to fight wars. Also, international relations, there's what's called the tribute system. And the tribute system was your power determines where you are in your hierarchy. If you have more power, you have more hierarchy. You're higher in the hierarchy. It's like Confucian. And everybody should know what each other's power is.