Ray Dalio

You know, don't do it because I know what the experience is like. The experience is like you're wrestling around with it, you're losing money. The day you put on a trade, It doesn't go either straight up or straight down. It goes against you. So now, I don't know, you're losing money.

okay how how much should you lose what's your game plan you've got to know your game plan and stick to the game plan and you can't be shaken out and yet um the emotions are going to cause you to doubt yourself and plus it brings you stress all of that so you have to execute a game plan that's very well thought out right yeah um then over time you start to develop some better instincts.

okay how how much should you lose what's your game plan you've got to know your game plan and stick to the game plan and you can't be shaken out and yet um the emotions are going to cause you to doubt yourself and plus it brings you stress all of that so you have to execute a game plan that's very well thought out right yeah um then over time you start to develop some better instincts.

Like if you're excited and you're going along, be scared. If you're doing something you're really worried about and nobody else is doing it, maybe good. Don't be dissuaded. See, the markets are very different than consensus decision-making. It's counter consensus because the consensus is built into the price. So if everybody loves something, it's expensive.

Like if you're excited and you're going along, be scared. If you're doing something you're really worried about and nobody else is doing it, maybe good. Don't be dissuaded. See, the markets are very different than consensus decision-making. It's counter consensus because the consensus is built into the price. So if everybody loves something, it's expensive.

And if everybody hates something, it's cheap. So where most people say, ah, this is like, oh, what a great company. Okay, Amazon is a great company. We got Amazon's a great company. Who doesn't got that Amazon's a great company? Okay, and then, okay, I'm gonna go on Amazon, okay?

And if everybody hates something, it's cheap. So where most people say, ah, this is like, oh, what a great company. Okay, Amazon is a great company. We got Amazon's a great company. Who doesn't got that Amazon's a great company? Okay, and then, okay, I'm gonna go on Amazon, okay?

But if everybody's got that it's a great company and it becomes increment less great than they anticipated, bam, that baby goes down. So you have to...

But if everybody's got that it's a great company and it becomes increment less great than they anticipated, bam, that baby goes down. So you have to...

You know, pain plus reflection. You will get the pain. Pay attention to it. Listen to it because you're going to get the pain. Yeah.

You know, pain plus reflection. You will get the pain. Pay attention to it. Listen to it because you're going to get the pain. Yeah.

I was in the right place at the right time. I held this thing or bought it, or I am at that company. I'm working at that company and you know, all of a sudden it goes from this to that and you know, you're holding onto it and it goes, okay, that's true. Oh wow. Okay. It's winning the lottery kind of thing. Okay. Do that again.

I was in the right place at the right time. I held this thing or bought it, or I am at that company. I'm working at that company and you know, all of a sudden it goes from this to that and you know, you're holding onto it and it goes, okay, that's true. Oh wow. Okay. It's winning the lottery kind of thing. Okay. Do that again.

okay and then again and you do it again and can you make the thing the the thing work over and over and can you hold on to it and so on yeah because that's that's where you know it's like um Well, using your sports analogy, right? You know, you can luckily crack the bat and, you know, I mean, or whatever, the Hail Mary pass and so on. When you have to do it on an ongoing basis, regularly, that's,

okay and then again and you do it again and can you make the thing the the thing work over and over and can you hold on to it and so on yeah because that's that's where you know it's like um Well, using your sports analogy, right? You know, you can luckily crack the bat and, you know, I mean, or whatever, the Hail Mary pass and so on. When you have to do it on an ongoing basis, regularly, that's,

the test of talent, then that's harder.

the test of talent, then that's harder.

Well, um, on the doubts, you know, the question is always like, how big of a deal is it and what is the type of bed and so on. And little doubts, OK, that's no big thing. Life and death decisions, those kinds of things, those are the big questions. And what I realize on those is doubting is part of that process. You can only be sure a certain amount. How do you get to the best triangulation?

Well, um, on the doubts, you know, the question is always like, how big of a deal is it and what is the type of bed and so on. And little doubts, OK, that's no big thing. Life and death decisions, those kinds of things, those are the big questions. And what I realize on those is doubting is part of that process. You can only be sure a certain amount. How do you get to the best triangulation?

In other words, take in. from the smartest people and your own thoughts and so on so that you're making that, understand how reality works, and then try to make sure that none of your decisions are the ones that knock you out of the game. In other words, like I've got an expression for people who work for me, you can scratch the car, but you can't total the car.