Ray Dalio

And those become irreconcilable differences that are not easily solved through the usual means of operating that way, such as democracies.

During the 30s, for example, four major democracies chose to be autocracies during those periods.

The third is the international geopolitical cycle, in other words, of a rising power challenging existing powers.

The same dominance of the dominant power fades relative to other powers, and also the order then gets challenged, and we're certainly going through that.

The fourth factor throughout history has been acts of nature.

Droughts, floods, and pandemics have actually killed more people than wars and actually led to more ends of the previously mentioned cycles than anything else.

So nature, and certainly nature, climate change and the like, is a big force.

And then fifth, through history, are man's learnings of particularly developments of new technologies.

The developments of new technologies is what has raised living standards over time, which you can see in terms of life expectancies and per capita GDP.

And of course, the development of new technologies now

is a very important influence.

So those five factors have gone above, those are the main five factors.

Anything we'll talk about will be under one of those.

And of course, the interrelationships between them is important.

First of all, there are great imbalances that have to be rectified given this set of circumstances.

So, three major types which relate to trade, but they also relate to capital.

The first is that the dynamic by which Chinese export to the United States

items that are cost effective and Americans buy them and then they sell send the money back and the Chinese earn the money and take that money and invest in bonds has created a unsustainable dynamic because as we're living in this environment related to

to the next two items, where those two countries can be in conflict, military conflict.

There necessarily has to be insecurities on both parties, the Chinese having an insecurity of whether they're actually going to be able to turn