Ray Dalio

You have to beat the other person who's doing it.

On the strategic asset allocation mix, before I get into the tactical, though I've expressed my views on the tactical of gold relative to bonds, I think you have to create a very good...

balanced portfolio.

How you do that could take a long session, but I think you have to think of that not in nominal terms, but in real terms.

So in other words, when you're thinking, you're doing your asset allocation, what is going to protect your real after-tax returns so you create that optimal mix?

Gold is a very excellent diversifier of the portfolio.

So if you were to look at, just from the strategic asset allocation mix perspective, you would probably have something like, as the optimal mix, something like 15% of your portfolio in gold because of the fact that

if you didn't even have a tactical, because it is the one asset that does very well when the typical parts of your portfolio go down, because the typical parts of your portfolio are also so credit dependent.

So anyway, I think all of this means that there should be some piece in that of gold.

If I'm making tactical bets, I don't like

debt assets per se, and I would say I don't like debt assets per se, not just government debt assets, but also if you're looking, let's say, at credit or private credit, and you look at where the credit spreads are, credit spreads are very, very low, and so for those various reasons, my tilts would be away from those things.

But again, yes, so more than would be a normal asset allocation mix.

But I think you have to also say, start with what is a real dollar, if you're a dollar investor, a real return asset that you're going to hold as part of that portfolio.

Most of the system is dependent on credit.

equities and everything is dependent on credit.

You change credit and then all sorts of things happen.

And so it's an effective diversifier as well as probably the timing just seems good.

I think the picture on cutting rates

uh... is slightly mixed uh... uh... so and has to do with the split in the economy and has to do with split in capital markets uh... which means uh... you're trying to look at the economy as a whole but you what you have is in certain sections of the economy you have an enormous amount of liquidity enormous amount of wealth

things like if you're in the top 1% of anything, which is the top 1% of the income earners, the top 1% of the stocks, NAI and so on and so forth, wow, there's a tremendous amount of liquidity and fantastic.