Rick Rieder

I think 3% is a no-brainer in my mind.

That is an equilibrium rate.

Inflation break-evens don't trade a lot.

I'm not sure they're a great benchmark, but they're 2.3%.

You're still above inflation break-evens.

Given what the labor market is telling you today, given that inflation, most of what is in inflation today is non-cyclical in services.

We talked about shelter, and you could actually, if you drop rates, you bring shelter down.

You build shelter, inflation down.

But things like healthcare, education, insurance, trash, et cetera, these things are not interest rate sensitive.

So I don't think inflation is – we're going to hurt inflation by getting that funds rate to any lower because so much of it is non-cyclical in inflation.

So I think three is certainly a place you can rest.

You know, whether we have to go lower gets the damned question about like what is over, you know, if you have an economy that's not running 5% nominal and we start slowing because the fiscal tailwind becomes a headwind, you know, does the neutral rate have to be closer to 2%?

You know, I think time will tell.

But I don't think we have to go that much lower today.

But I know if it was me, I would get the rate to three.

I would be focused on longer on the yield curve because that's where real velocity in the system works.

That's where we finance mortgages, credit, virtually everything in the system finances out the curve in the fives to tens roughly.

Yeah, no, you anticipated my answer.

You know, I'm, well, A, I'm focused on my family situation, as we talked about, in terms of, and then, you know, B, you know, this is the busiest time, I cry frankly, I've ever seen in terms of what we're doing.

You know, we've got a lot of year-end stuff we do.