Rick Rieder

If you look at the demand function, and you look at the JOLTS data this week around job openings, and you look at the trend there.

And again, I'm not saying we're in a jobs crisis today.

But if you took a step back and said, gosh, I want to look at the big picture, and I go back to where we were in terms of what jobs are created in 22, 23, 24, we could strip out the COVID dynamic.

And then you say, where are we going?

Where we're going is a place from a labor perspective that I think is a bit concerning.

And I think, you know, one man's opinion, I think you have to be a bit anticipatory.

We've been talking about this, you know, for nine months where, you know, the funds rate was at four and three-eighths.

And by the way, I don't, you know, I just think, I don't think we need to go that far.

I think we got to get the funds rate down a bit to 3%.

We've been talking about that every month on this show.

And I just think you got to get there because I think that's the equilibrium rate today.

So the answer is, you're right, and it's like, does the Fed create jobs?

And the Fed have one tool to create, and this argument that the Fed has one tool.

And by the way, it's not just the Fed.

I actually think most of what you're describing needs to be accomplished through fiscal initiatives.

And so by the way, obviously a lot of news recently about the housing market.

Well, I think the housing market is such a profound dynamic.

And part of why I think that influence is so significant.

And by the way, I actually don't think the Fed funds rate is that critical.

I think it's longer term interest rates you got to keep down because you got to get the mortgage rate down.