Rita McGrath

But when you're talking about something that's going to affect the everyday lives of potentially hundreds of millions of people, there is risk you have to sort out. There's ownership regimes, what roads are safe for these things to go on. And so there's a whole social dimension that needs to happen in addition to just getting the tech right. And that's hard enough.

So in the beginning, people see the potential, right? So autonomous cars, right? Oh, my God, you know, wouldn't this be awesome? Older people won't have to lose their independence and, you know, we'll be able to have these regulated things in cities and it'll reduce pollution and it's going to be amazing. So there's a hype cycle.

So in the beginning, people see the potential, right? So autonomous cars, right? Oh, my God, you know, wouldn't this be awesome? Older people won't have to lose their independence and, you know, we'll be able to have these regulated things in cities and it'll reduce pollution and it's going to be amazing. So there's a hype cycle.

So in the beginning, people see the potential, right? So autonomous cars, right? Oh, my God, you know, wouldn't this be awesome? Older people won't have to lose their independence and, you know, we'll be able to have these regulated things in cities and it'll reduce pollution and it's going to be amazing. So there's a hype cycle.

Then what happens is the hype doesn't deliver to its expectations, at least in the short run. So the first... year or two, and then we have, you know, the AI winter sets in and everybody's disillusioned. And, oh, you know, we thought it was going to do everything from making Cocoa Pop still launching to the moon. And then everybody gets disillusioned.

Then what happens is the hype doesn't deliver to its expectations, at least in the short run. So the first... year or two, and then we have, you know, the AI winter sets in and everybody's disillusioned. And, oh, you know, we thought it was going to do everything from making Cocoa Pop still launching to the moon. And then everybody gets disillusioned.

Then what happens is the hype doesn't deliver to its expectations, at least in the short run. So the first... year or two, and then we have, you know, the AI winter sets in and everybody's disillusioned. And, oh, you know, we thought it was going to do everything from making Cocoa Pop still launching to the moon. And then everybody gets disillusioned.

But what happens is the survivors of that period have actually worked some cool stuff out now. So if you think about Dollar Shave Club, if you think about what came before the early internet, remember the late 90s and the dot-com crash, and everybody said, oh, this internet thing is never going to be a thing you know, we should all just forget it, forget it, right?

But what happens is the survivors of that period have actually worked some cool stuff out now. So if you think about Dollar Shave Club, if you think about what came before the early internet, remember the late 90s and the dot-com crash, and everybody said, oh, this internet thing is never going to be a thing you know, we should all just forget it, forget it, right?

But what happens is the survivors of that period have actually worked some cool stuff out now. So if you think about Dollar Shave Club, if you think about what came before the early internet, remember the late 90s and the dot-com crash, and everybody said, oh, this internet thing is never going to be a thing you know, we should all just forget it, forget it, right?

But out of that came Amazon, eBay, some of the early, really successful internet commerce platforms, programs which showed us that this could be useful in our lives. And so the next cycle is this sort of trough of disillusionment, but the weeding out of the stuff that isn't going to work till you find the stuff that works.

But out of that came Amazon, eBay, some of the early, really successful internet commerce platforms, programs which showed us that this could be useful in our lives. And so the next cycle is this sort of trough of disillusionment, but the weeding out of the stuff that isn't going to work till you find the stuff that works.

But out of that came Amazon, eBay, some of the early, really successful internet commerce platforms, programs which showed us that this could be useful in our lives. And so the next cycle is this sort of trough of disillusionment, but the weeding out of the stuff that isn't going to work till you find the stuff that works.

And then in the third stage, you have people saying, whoa, oh, now I get it. I could use that thing to do X, Y, Z. So what you see is this flowering of opportunities and this flowering of new applications. And that's the really exciting period, right? That's the period where You're now actually seeing real growth businesses built around that stuff.

And then in the third stage, you have people saying, whoa, oh, now I get it. I could use that thing to do X, Y, Z. So what you see is this flowering of opportunities and this flowering of new applications. And that's the really exciting period, right? That's the period where You're now actually seeing real growth businesses built around that stuff.

And then in the third stage, you have people saying, whoa, oh, now I get it. I could use that thing to do X, Y, Z. So what you see is this flowering of opportunities and this flowering of new applications. And that's the really exciting period, right? That's the period where You're now actually seeing real growth businesses built around that stuff.

And I'd say Dollar Shave Club would be a great example of that. And then you have the kind of, oh, yeah, this is just normal. This is like, what do you mean there was a time before high-speed broadband?

And I'd say Dollar Shave Club would be a great example of that. And then you have the kind of, oh, yeah, this is just normal. This is like, what do you mean there was a time before high-speed broadband?

And I'd say Dollar Shave Club would be a great example of that. And then you have the kind of, oh, yeah, this is just normal. This is like, what do you mean there was a time before high-speed broadband?

Well, the way I like to look at it is if you imagine this, as I said, a time zero event, and then you work backward, you just say, what would have to be true before this could actually happen? And what I like to do with companies is we'll make actually like a chart. I call it an early warnings signal model. And then we watch it.