Rob Armstrong

I feel like from the work Hack Young has done and that I've done, you know, if we can keep it under 150 for the American economy, at least, that's bearable.

Maybe a different story for Europe.

Certainly a different story for Asia.

But like the danger zone, I think, is still above what most analysts are talking about.

I, of course, allow for the unpleasant possibility that the analysts are not pessimistic enough, which is.

Yes.

You know what I mean?

Yeah.

But, you know, I think the central hypothesis remains sometime in the next couple of months.

They managed to get the straight open.

Oil never touches 150.

Yeah.

And we all breathe a big sigh of relief.

There is a right tail that is awful.

And we should talk about that.

But the central hypothesis, the most likely outcome, I think it's markets friendly, given everything else we know about the economy and what the market is doing now and so forth.

It is a very unpleasant sensation for a pundit.

Thank you very much.

All I can do is fall back on that old description of OPEC as the world's dumbest cartel.

Like their ability to organize themselves, to effectively control prices, to execute a long-term strategy is notoriously a bit ragged.