Rob Kaplan

Even if J-PAL were gone, I can tell you I don't think there's a consensus around the table to cut rates in the May meeting. They're open to it, but that's even if J-PAL wasn't there. And so I think there's some realization that institutionally you've got to build a consensus. It's got to be based on facts and analysis and debate.

And I think they may have concluded that removing J-PAL, one, would be legally problematic, but also would be institutionally very unsettling to the world. And it might not cause any change. J-PAL will leave next year, first half of next year. They will pick someone new. You want that new person to be seen as also independent, I think.

And I think they may have concluded that removing J-PAL, one, would be legally problematic, but also would be institutionally very unsettling to the world. And it might not cause any change. J-PAL will leave next year, first half of next year. They will pick someone new. You want that new person to be seen as also independent, I think.

and preserving the independence of the Fed and not make any pre-commitments to the administration about what he or she will or won't do. And I think they're going to have to be careful about that.

and preserving the independence of the Fed and not make any pre-commitments to the administration about what he or she will or won't do. And I think they're going to have to be careful about that.

On the being late point, I've been critical of the Fed in 2021 and 22 that I thought the Fed should

On the being late point, I've been critical of the Fed in 2021 and 22 that I thought the Fed should

start tapering bond buying soon sooner than they did and start looking at raising rates sooner so in that regard you could criticize them and they might criticize themselves they were somewhat late the best analogy that i can think of is you're driving on the highway and you're going 65 or 70 miles an hour and people are in the back seat and they want you to go faster the same time let's take that same highway

start tapering bond buying soon sooner than they did and start looking at raising rates sooner so in that regard you could criticize them and they might criticize themselves they were somewhat late the best analogy that i can think of is you're driving on the highway and you're going 65 or 70 miles an hour and people are in the back seat and they want you to go faster the same time let's take that same highway

but there's a rainstorm, there's a hailstorm, there's terrible visibility. I don't think anybody's going to be beating on you to go 65, 70 miles an hour. They're going to say, you know, I'm going to go 35. And I don't think anybody's going to say, you're late, you're slow. We're going to get there 10 minutes later. You'd say, let's get there in one piece.

but there's a rainstorm, there's a hailstorm, there's terrible visibility. I don't think anybody's going to be beating on you to go 65, 70 miles an hour. They're going to say, you know, I'm going to go 35. And I don't think anybody's going to say, you're late, you're slow. We're going to get there 10 minutes later. You'd say, let's get there in one piece.

And so he's right that the Fed is going to be more reactive. However, There's a lot of fog and rain and maybe some hail that makes their being slower, I think, justifiable, particularly given inflation is still sticky in the United States.

And so he's right that the Fed is going to be more reactive. However, There's a lot of fog and rain and maybe some hail that makes their being slower, I think, justifiable, particularly given inflation is still sticky in the United States.

Good to talk to you.

Good to talk to you.