Rob Kaplan

think here's what we know and here's what we don't know i think the fed is going to be in my opinion more reactive than preemptive in 2019 i was at the fed when we had a tariff issue i advocated for preemption but we could do that because we didn't have an inflation issue the fed here will be more reactive if you see a severe slowing that i think on balance offsets some of this cost push i think the fed may well see its way clear to reducing rates

think here's what we know and here's what we don't know i think the fed is going to be in my opinion more reactive than preemptive in 2019 i was at the fed when we had a tariff issue i advocated for preemption but we could do that because we didn't have an inflation issue the fed here will be more reactive if you see a severe slowing that i think on balance offsets some of this cost push i think the fed may well see its way clear to reducing rates

multiple times. But the Fed shouldn't be in the business of predicting that because it needs to see it before it acts because it's unclear. And so the market has to make predictions because we've got to invest. The Fed should be more of a risk manager. And I would advise investors, realize there's a whole bunch of scenarios because we don't know what the tariffs are going to be.

multiple times. But the Fed shouldn't be in the business of predicting that because it needs to see it before it acts because it's unclear. And so the market has to make predictions because we've got to invest. The Fed should be more of a risk manager. And I would advise investors, realize there's a whole bunch of scenarios because we don't know what the tariffs are going to be.

We don't know what ultimately how far we're going to go on deporting undocumented immigrants, reducing workforce growth even further. And you don't know how this government spending effort is going to work out. That's a lot of uncertainty. And so just be prepared. This is unpredictable. I think investors think that.

We don't know what ultimately how far we're going to go on deporting undocumented immigrants, reducing workforce growth even further. And you don't know how this government spending effort is going to work out. That's a lot of uncertainty. And so just be prepared. This is unpredictable. I think investors think that.

I think you will see if you saw the unemployment rate. Remember, the Fed's mandate is full employment and price stability. It's not GDP. It's unemployment.

I think you will see if you saw the unemployment rate. Remember, the Fed's mandate is full employment and price stability. It's not GDP. It's unemployment.

If you saw unemployment begin to spike higher where it's clear it's on its way to 5%, I think that would – if I were at the Fed, that would get me on my front foot that maybe I might be willing to take some liberties in thinking that demand destruction – will offset some of this cost push. The other thing that would cause the Fed to act if you saw disorder

If you saw unemployment begin to spike higher where it's clear it's on its way to 5%, I think that would – if I were at the Fed, that would get me on my front foot that maybe I might be willing to take some liberties in thinking that demand destruction – will offset some of this cost push. The other thing that would cause the Fed to act if you saw disorder

in either the treasury market or the other financial markets.

in either the treasury market or the other financial markets.

Well, we haven't seen it yet. I think it's not a great combination. We talked right before this interview. When gold is going up, the dollar is weakening, the 10-year is inching back up while the market is selling off. That is not what you want to see.

Well, we haven't seen it yet. I think it's not a great combination. We talked right before this interview. When gold is going up, the dollar is weakening, the 10-year is inching back up while the market is selling off. That is not what you want to see.

But it happened in an orderly way. I think the Fed is on their toes looking at overnight liquidity and market function. If that continues to be orderly, They won't act, but they're watching it.

But it happened in an orderly way. I think the Fed is on their toes looking at overnight liquidity and market function. If that continues to be orderly, They won't act, but they're watching it.

I'll put it this way. There'll be a new SEP, summary of economic projections, in June. If I were submitting my estimate in March, I would have said two. If I were submitting in June, believe it or not, I might also say two.

I'll put it this way. There'll be a new SEP, summary of economic projections, in June. If I were submitting my estimate in March, I would have said two. If I were submitting in June, believe it or not, I might also say two.

That's less than the market expects, but I want to do that deliberately in that I want to leave our options open depending on what happens with these tariff and other decisions, and I don't want to be in a position where we sort of indicated to the market we're going to do more than we're really able to do.

That's less than the market expects, but I want to do that deliberately in that I want to leave our options open depending on what happens with these tariff and other decisions, and I don't want to be in a position where we sort of indicated to the market we're going to do more than we're really able to do.