Rob Kaplan

Tax incentives, tax on tips, tax on overtime, accelerated depreciation, regulatory relief getting more for getting further along.

And then still the AI data center power boom, I think, is underway.

So that's that's why they're balancing what's the here and now versus the headwinds likely in twenty six.

So the Fed is focused on full employment and meeting a 2 percent inflation target.

And the reason they're sticking with the 2 percent inflation target is there's still 85 million workers in the United States that make 50 or 55 grand a year who are struggling to make ends meet.

So affordability is a big issue in the U.S.

I think any of the candidates mentioned.

have the intellectual capability and leadership capability to balance those issues.

I think whoever's in the job, and I won't go through individual names, they will need to show that while they may be from the administration or other sources, they're going to be intellectually willing to balance those issues and have that debate.

without regard to political pressure or political considerations.

And that's, I think, what the market wants to see.

Well, it is natural for administrations to want lower rates.

Lower rates mean higher real GDP growth, higher nominal growth.

But that's why the Fed is a little bit has to be independent and when necessary, push against that.

So I think any of the candidates have the capability of doing it.

And my advice to any candidate would be if you're in the job, you want to reiterate that you're going to respect and try to preserve the independence of the Fed, at least on setting the Fed funds rate.

So the Fed only controls the front end of the curve.

And so what you've seen, the Fed has cut 150 basis points since September of 24.

The 10 year has hardly budged.

OK, it's down just a touch.