Rob Kaplan

I fully expect that with the greatest Fed chairs before him, Kevin will safeguard the Fed's integrity.

They'll make their own decisions and hopefully make them well.

Thankfully, unlike some of his predecessors, Kevin understands that when the economy is booming,

It is.

That's a good thing.

Because of oil prices being elevated and inflation readings being stickier, now the view is, and probably the conditions would warrant, the next Fed move may actually be a raise.

Especially in the next number of weeks, he's got to get prepared for that first meeting and the press conference and the dot plot explanation.

There's no question that the labor market is weaker and very sluggish.

There's three reasons why.

One, tariffs, at least in the short run, are slowing growth in the United States.

And they're affecting small business disproportionately.

And you saw in this recent job weakness, a lot of the weakness was in small business.

That makes sense.

Second, there's been constraints on labor force growth, which reduces supply, but also there's a multiplier effect when jobs go unfilled.

It creates other jobs that would have been created.

You know, there's another half a job that would be created for every job goes unfilled.

And then the shutdown has been a headwind for growth.

So it's not surprising you're seeing some weakness.

The trick for the Fed is as you head into 26, we've got a few tailwinds.

That may come to the fore.