Rob, Luisa, and the 80000 Hours team

So that might push in favor of us coming to think that they're conscious even if they're not.

I guess you're saying you're almost bringing this political economy dynamic where you're saying people whose lives are going poorly or they don't have many economic prospects anymore or they think of themselves as kind of losers in the current system might form an alliance with what they view as the future, which is going to be these AIs that are becoming more and more capable.

I've never heard that one before.

Yeah.

Let's push on and think about what, if anything, is to be done about all of this.

Yeah, I've got to say, I feel like this whole set of ideas is at a relatively early stage.

It feels like we're at a sort of beta version of the gradual disempowerment concerns.

The first thing that I would think,

the most obvious thing that I think has to be done is like getting much more to grips with all these different dynamics, trying to like really have a lot of debate about like how strong will this effect be?

How strong will that effect be?

Like maybe some of them can be crossed off the list or like relegated to the second tier.

Other things can be promoted as like, no, this is going to be sort of the primary effect.

And then like mapping out the different scenarios and like maybe having, you know, half a dozen that seem like at least plausible to a decent number of people.

And then we can start to organize our thoughts a bit more around those.

Yeah.

Do you agree that that is kind of the first order of business here or that's the most obvious order of business here?

Yeah.

And even if you think, you know, over the next five or 10 years, they're only going to be compliments to human labor.

That's your median forecast.

Like think a little bit longer term, think like more decades out, think, well, what if there's a 5% chance that perhaps it's not all just complimentarity.