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Rob Wiblin

πŸ‘€ Speaker
3881 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

And he replied, because that's where the money is.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

Well, why would an AI attack an AI company?

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

That is where the compute is.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

And on top of that, they're also highly intricate and sensitive machines that are basically very vulnerable to sabotage, both by AIs and foreign adversaries.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

META's new methodology is set up to assess the safety of internal deployment in a credible way every six months, even if the models concerned are never published.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

Companies could try to do this themselves, but there's several reasons META is in a better position to do it.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

As an external party, they're less commercially conflicted.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

As outsiders, they might have an easier time spotting mistakes a company has missed in their own setup.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

And with the companies locked in a really fierce commercial race, they're probably glad that they can hand this task over to someone else and focus on making money and getting customers.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

Anthropic co-founder and head of policy, Jack Clark, he recently wrote that he thinks there's a 60% chance that one AI company or other will hand over the task of developing AI to its own AI model by the end of 2028.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

Let's imagine he's right for a moment.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

I would bet that when that moment arrives, Claude Mythos 4 and Claude Mythos 5 that gets trained by Claude Mythos 4, those kinds of models won't be available to you and me, that their cyber capabilities will be too worrying, their ability to generate new pandemics will be way too alarming.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

Everyone will be worried that Chinese AI companies are going to distill them, that that field will loom large.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

And in any case, Anthropic will wander through as much of its compute as possible back into its own recursive self-improvement loop, not be offering it to customers.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

As that scenario plays out, we're not going to be quibbling about what sort of user permissions Claude has.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

It will have every permission under the sun.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

It is the staff member.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

And we won't be debating how good it is at coming up with escape plans.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

A model good enough to fully replace Anthropic Staff won't be hiding its secrets in base 64.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Can AIs already start 'rogue deployments' inside AI companies? (Landmark new METR report)

It'll be able to come up with proper plans to keep things secret.