Rob Wiblin

speaker

5,091 appearances 15 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2021 last heard 6 Aug

Rob Wiblin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 13 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 3.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #250 – Toby Ord on where AGI timelines go wrong · 6 Aug 2026 podcast

One reason that it was premature in 2023 was that the models just weren't capable enough to actually be a direct threat in any particular way.

So there was no immediate risk that was being reduced.

And furthermore, during the pause, the models weren't yet capable enough to assist you with alignment research, with governance research, with really anything.

In fact, weren't actually that useful as it turns out.

So in both respects, not very much would have been accomplished.

And so in my mind, what you're doing is trying to optimally time the point at which you have some moratorium so that you're actually reducing some direct risk that the AIs might pose.

In the meantime, they can help you speed up a whole bunch of other work that you want to do, that you want to speed up relative to AI capabilities.

But you don't want to miss the boat completely.

You don't want to delay this so long that things go horribly wrong before you've had a chance to slow them down at all, which is a difficult question.

But I feel like the case that the timing is right is stronger in 2027 than it was in 2023.

And it might be stronger in 2028 than it will be in 2027.

What do you make of this optimal timing issue?

I think, yeah, if you talk about

moratoriums with people at the companies.

I think the thing that they immediately want to know is, well, what exactly do you want us to do while we're doing this like pause or while we're slowing things down?

What exactly is on the to-do list so that we can then release this moratorium?

And I think, I guess it's in a sense that that's good because maybe we

They're the people who might have to do a bunch of this stuff.

So it's natural for them to ask, well, exactly what are you requesting?

But do you think you would want to design it with that structure that you're like, well, we need to basically tick all of these boxes and then we'll feel comfortable and then we'll go ahead?

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