Rob Wiblin

And think of the technological change that has occurred over the last 100 or 150 years.

We went from having very little... Electricity was just an idea to everywhere was electrified.

We had the washing machine and the...

the television, the radio, like all these things happen, computers happen in this period of time.

None of these show up as like an uptick in economic growth.

And I think there's this stylized fact that mainstream economists really like to cite, which is that new technology is sort of the engine that sustains 2% growth.

And in the absence of that new technology,

growth would have slowed.

And so they're kind of like, this is how new technologies always are.

People think that they're gonna lead to a productivity boom, but you never see them in the statistics.

You didn't see the radio, you didn't see the television, you didn't see the computer, you didn't see the internet, and you're not gonna see AI.

AI might be really cool, it might be the next thing that lets us keep chugging along.

And that's like one perspective.

It's an outside view they keep returning to.

And also just maybe a like somewhat more generalized thing, which is like, things are just always hard and slow.

You know, just like way harder and slower than you think.

You know, it's like, what was it like Murphy's, not Murphy's law.

Yeah, anything that can go wrong will go wrong.

Or like Hofstadter's Law.

It always takes longer than you think, even when you take Hofstadter's Law into account.