Rob Wiblin

speaker

5,091 appearances 15 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2021 last heard 6 Aug

Rob Wiblin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 13 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 3.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #250 – Toby Ord on where AGI timelines go wrong · 6 Aug 2026 podcast

So one source of benefit from a moratorium would just be slowing down progress so we have more time to learn through trial and error.

I guess a different reason to have a moratorium or some limitations on recursive self-improvement is so that you are more likely to retain a human in the loop who's monitoring what's going on and might pick up misalignment or attempted, I guess, sabotage of future models by an AI that was designing its successor.

Do you have any thoughts on how you can encourage that to keep occurring?

At least not.

Not directly, probably, but they might be able to use other AI tools to inspect the outputs and to have them debate one another about whether they're faithful.

There's various things that people have suggested.

So back in 2023, there was a very famous letter suggesting that we should have a six-month pause on training new, more powerful models than GPT-4.

And I guess in the meantime, the request was that the companies get their house in order and figure out internal practices that would allow them to more safely train and release models going forward.

I decided not to sign the letter at the time because I wasn't sure whether it was a good idea.

And I think with the benefit of hindsight, I suppose hindsight is 20-20, but I think it would have been

would have had almost no benefits.

Or at least like the pausing on the training, I don't think would have been very useful because it wouldn't really have stopped progress.

Compute would have continued advancing.

That'd still have been able to do many types of experiments.

And I think would roughly have the same capabilities now as we would have given that there was no pause.

So given that in 2023, I think it would have been a mistake.

There's a question that's like, why is it better now?

Why do it in 2026?

Why not wait until 2027 or 2028?

I think there's various things that you're trading off.

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