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Rob Wiblin

πŸ‘€ Speaker
3881 total appearances
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Podcast Appearances

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

More broadly, the documents show that managers overseeing anti-fraud efforts were told that they couldn't take any action that would cost Meta more than 0.1% of total revenue.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

Meta says this wasn't a hard limit.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

The math kind of speaks for itself.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

If fraud accounts for roughly 10% of your revenue and your anti-fraud team is capped at affecting 0.15%, their hands are really pretty much tied.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

There's not a lot that they're going to be able to do.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

A particularly grim detail about this is that Meta's ad targeting algorithm naturally identifies people vulnerable to fraud, like the elderly or the desperate.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

And if they click on one scam ad, it learns to feed them more and more until their feed is basically completely stuffed with them.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

Now, this all sounds pretty outrageous.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

Ameta's own documents suggest the company realized that it was legally exposed here.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

They anticipated fines of up to a billion dollars for what they were doing.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

But the documents show them doing a cold calculation.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

A billion dollars in fines?

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

Okay.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

But wait, we're making 3.5 billion dollars every six months from high-risk scam ads in the United States alone.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

That figure, one document noted, almost certainly exceeds the cost of any regulatory settlement involving scam ads.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

So those fines to Meta just became another cost of doing business.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

Rather than voluntarily cracking down, the same document finds Meta's leadership deciding to act only if faced with impending regulatory action.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

So what are the takeaways for policymakers?

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

First and most obviously, penalties have to scale with expected profits and the probability of catching a lawbreaker in the first place.

80,000 Hours Podcast
Is there a case against Anthropic? And: The Meta leaks are worse than you think.

Meta could look at $1 billion in expected fines and shrug because they were just making so much more money from running the fraudulent ads.