Rob Wiblin

So you might have to cut deals to make that happen.

But also in less extreme cases, you might just purchase a bunch of NVIDIA or purchase a bunch of liquid public stocks that are exposed to AI to make it more likely that you can afford AI capabilities at the time.

Yeah, I think that at least at the beginning part of crunch time, like when the AIs are just starting to automate a lot of AI R&D, my bet is that things will at that point be relatively commercial, relatively open.

The leading few companies are within a month of each other in their capability frontier.

Or maybe it's hard to say who's in the lead because one company specializes in one

like, you know, their model is like a little spiky on like pre-training and another company's model is a little spiky on software engineering or something like that.

And I think that the reason I think that is basically just because it's kind of what like a naive econ 101 model would predict would happen.

It seems like these companies don't have big moats.

And it also seems like what we've seen happen over the last few years, like,

It describes the present day.

And that's a change from a few years ago where I do think open AI had like way more of a lead and it seemed more plausible that there would be like a monopoly or a duopoly.

But there are reasons to push in the other direction, which is basically that if you have a super exponential feedback loop, you have a bunch of actors that are growing at an increasingly rapid rate, like first at 2%, then at 4%, then at 8%.

And they don't interact with one another.

You do get a winner-take-all dynamic, where if they're growing on the same growth curve

but one gets to a particular milestone first, the bat leader gets more and more and more powerful and wealthy relative to the laggards.

This is in contrast to exponential growth, where if everyone is growing at 2% forever, then the ratios between more and less wealthy nations or companies stay fixed.

So there is a reason to think that specifically around the time of the intelligence explosion, gaps will begin to grow again.

But I think probably around the start, yeah, it will most likely be the case that you can buy AI labor if you can afford it.

You can buy API credits.

You can go on ChatGPT.com.