Roman Yampolsky
speaker
257 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2024
last heard Jun 2024
Roman Yampolsky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
It's a small fund, but if you have good vision, maybe you can zoom in on that and see the prediction dates in the description. I have a large one if you're interested.
I definitely... There are studies on their accuracy rates and all that. You can look it up. But even if they're wrong, I'm just saying this is right now the best we have. This is what humanity came up with as the predicted date.
You may be completely right, but what probability would you assign it? You may be 10% wrong, but we're betting all of humanity on this distribution. It seems irrational.
I think they're all about the same. Obviously, there are nuanced differences, but in terms of capability, I don't see a huge difference between them. As I said, in my opinion, across all possible tasks, they exceed performance of an average person. I think they're starting to be better than an average master's student at my university. but they still have very big limitations.
If the next model is as improved as GPT-4 versus GPT-3, we may see something very, very, very capable.
So when I started working on this, it was pure science fiction. There was no funding, no journals, no conferences. No one in academia would dare to touch anything with the word singularity in it. And I was pretty tenured at the time, so I was pretty dumb. Now, you see Turing Award winners publishing in Science about how far behind we are, according to them, in addressing this problem.
So it's definitely a change. It's difficult to keep up. I used to be able to read every paper on AI safety, then I was able to read the best ones, then the titles, and now I don't even know what's going on. By the time this interview is over, they probably had GPT-6 released and I have to deal with that when I get back home. So it's interesting. Yes, there is now more opportunities.
I get invited to speak to smart people.
It is the most important problem we'll ever face. It is not like anything we had to deal with before. We never had birth of another intelligence. Like aliens never visited us, as far as I know, so.
In some ways, if you look at history, any time a more technologically advanced civilization visited a more primitive one, the results were genocide every single time.
And they always wondered, but how can they kill us with those fire sticks and biological blankets?
or die. But Joanne implies you have something to contribute. What are you contributing to superintelligence?
To our humans.
Well, getting back to our simulation discussion from before, how did it happen that we exist at exactly like the most interesting 20, 30 years in the history of this civilization? It's been around for 15 billion years.
And that here we are.
I know never to say 100%, but pretty close to that.
I have a paper about that. This is just the first page teaser, but it's like a nice 30-page document. I'm still here, but yes.
I spend a lot of time thinking about that. That would be something I would want superintelligence to help us with. And that's exactly what the paper is about. We used AI boxing as a possible tool for control AI. We realized AI will always escape, but that is a skill we might use to help us escape from our virtual box if we are in one.
So a lot depends on intelligence of simulators, right? With humans boxing superintelligence, the entity in the box was smarter than us, presumed to be. If the simulators are much smarter than us and the superintelligence we create, probably they can contain us because greater intelligence can control lower intelligence, at least for some time.
On the other hand, if our super intelligence somehow, for whatever reason, despite having only local resources, manages to foam to levels beyond it, maybe it will succeed. Maybe the security is not that important to them. Maybe it's entertainment system. So there is no security and it's easy to hack it.
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