Rory Driscoll
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And the guys running that are saying, we're going to need a whole bunch more CapEx.
And it was just interesting, because I think keeping an eye on TSMC as the people who would own the problem if they overinvest.
You can cut employees.
You can turn off your GPU.
But if you dig a big, deep hole in the ground in Phoenix and a big, deep hole in the ground in Japan and put a fab in there and no one uses it, you're out $20 billion.
And they're leaning in right now.
So that inference demand is pretty clearly there, according to all the tells.
Not every statement that says it's going to go on now has to be equally correct.
A bunch of people who have the money, starting with the foundries, going to the chip companies, and going to the hyperscale, have all said, we're going to spend this money this year.
So I think it's highly unlikely that you can.
This is not going to be the year where people get terrified and say, I'm not going to do it.
At some point, I think they will, because I think we probably are overinvesting at some level.
But right now, people are saying, I can see logic to this thing for the next 12, 24 months.
Despite the massive gap between the huge, the CapEx is now 600 billion, the apps revenue, you know, squinting is 100 billion.
So you're still, you know, 500 billion a year in the hole.
But right now, people are saying the return is there.
That's all you can conclude right now.
If you knew when it was going to happen to the day, you'd be trading NVIDIA put.
Because to take, for example, that statement, the cost of interest, the cost per token goes down enormously quickly.
And it's just that demand expands and just people use more and more tokens to get the same dollar amount, right?