Rory Johnston

At the peak of U.S.

production growth in 2018, we saw U.S.

production grow by 2 million barrels a day year over year, which was the fastest that any country in the history of the oil market had grown supply.

That alone would take half, you know, six plus years to fill in the supply hole.

So that's not an option.

We can't have an imbalance for, you know, a half dozen years.

On top of that, you've also got like the main areas of non-OPEC supply growth.

Generally right now are entirely concentrated in the Americas, in the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina.

All of those producers will produce some this year.

But overall, we're probably talking, let's say, one and a half million barrels a day of expected growth this year against a 13 million barrel a day hole in the market.

So supply is there, but it's not going to be fast enough, even with higher prices.

The next, I think, chunk is stocks.

Now,

The important thing, so I always think of the oil market as like the world's largest stock and flow model.

And what we mean by stocks are basically any barrel that has been produced out of a wellhead, but has not yet been consumed by an end consumer.

But that flattens a lot of stuff in that stock pile.

That's oil and water.

You know, any tankers on the ocean that are between point A and point B count as a stock.

You know, oil barrels that are in transit are a pipeline.

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