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Rory Johnston

πŸ‘€ Speaker
1782 total appearances
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Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

And what we will talk about shortly, I'm sure, is all the ways in which the system adapted and flexed.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

And I think we saw this most notably above all in China.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Yeah, so I would say the two biggest things, one on the fundamentals, on the barrel counting side, was China.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

We always knew that China had huge stockpiles of oil, but we didn't know how they were going to react to this crisis.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

And what we've seen through this crisis is that Chinese oil imports, crude oil imports into China, the world's largest crude oil importer, fell by upwards of 5 million barrels a day between the three-month average prior to the war through to June.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Now, we're not quite done this month, but that's roughly where we're trending for June so far.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

That 5 million barrels a day was upwards of half of the total spot market supply hit to Asia.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

And that allowed a lot of those other Asian importers to basically not have the competition that they would have had for the barrels they were importing.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

So the countries that were hit hardest by this crisis and the governments that were most panicked, governments in South Korea,

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Korea, Australia, Japan, Taiwan, et cetera, there was a period where like the prime minister of Australia was coming out daily and announcing the Australian government's successful acquisition of a cargo of diesel.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Like it felt very COVID-y.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

Now, those importers saw imports collapse through March and April.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

But through May and into June, they actually recovered basically to pre-war levels.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

And the largest facilitator of that was the fact that China was not competing for any of the other barrels.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

And it absorbed so much of the shock itself.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

It's a good question.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

And the firm answer is we do not have 100% certainty as to what the exact composition of that swing was.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

We know the oil going in fell by 5 to 6 million barrels a day, given products as well.

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

But in terms of the actual demand destruction, the thing that we have seen across China is that all of the mobility indicators – and you guys were actually in China very recently –

Odd Lots
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right

All the mobility indicators showed no notable decline.