Rory O'Driscoll
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
There's just windows when there's lots of liquidity and high prices and then it's crap 80% of the rest of the time.
Another version I've always thought is, and I don't want folks to take this the wrong way, but in some ways I feel like venture and tech is a bit of a scam.
And what I mean by that is that our job is to convert very high revenue multiples into cash almost unnaturally through M&A, through public offerings when they haven't earned it in free cash flow.
Our job is to find companies worth 20, 50, 100, 200 times revenue and magically convert that to cash.
And when it does, that's how we build 5X or higher funds.
And that's how we make money.
If we have to go to an EPS world, we're dead.
I feel like we're waiting for these moments.
And it's even worse because when multiples are way down like today, no matter what the card data says, there is no liquidity.
I'll tell you, listen, I don't want to get lost in the weeds.
I only disagree with you for two reasons, Rory.
They're just structural.
One is, as someone with a relatively modest amount of capital and a concentrated strategy, I haven't bought 20% of a startup in like seven years.
And I haven't done around at a million in revenue growing quickly in the teens in a decade.
Now, if I could buy 20% of these companies in the high teens pre-money, like I used to do when Harry and I met, then I would be pretty zen about today.
I'd be like, whatever the Lord brings, $500 million, $200 million, $3 billion.
If I have to own 5% at $50 million post demo day, the math works out in the aggregate.
Gary's got it all proved, no criticism.
But it really ratchets the pressure when the valuation's three times higher and the ownership's at 25%.
I think that this is where the Figma thing gets stressful.