Rory Stewart

And actually what happens is that he manages to run against another centrist, split the vote.

He ends up with 27% of the vote.

She gets 31%.

So she comes here on a pretty narrow margin against all the pundits' predictions and becomes leader.

Next thing that happens is everybody then sucks their teeth and says...

Well, it's going to be pretty difficult for her because actually, you know, she's seen as a bit of a sort of outsider in a party dominated by these people who are, as we've often said, when we're talking about Japanese politics, many of them are dynasts, you know, their children, grandchildren of ministers and prime ministers.

And she's from a more modest background from Nara, didn't go initially to the fanciest universities, etc.

So...

It's going to be difficult for her.

And she's in an impossible situation.

The story was she can't do it because a far-right party has emerged, Sanseito, which is beginning to pick up big anti-immigrant vote.

And at the same time, she's going to lose her coalition partner on the left.

who have signaled they're extremely uncomfortable being connected with the right-wing party.

So her problem feels a bit like, you know, for example, the Tory party in Britain.

You don't want to overstretch it, but she's got the rise, as your friend Chris Mason would say, the rise and rise of San Sato, of reform.

The rise and rise of reform.

He was a bit upset, I thought.

I'll be not talking about it later.

Anyway, that's happening on her right.

Meanwhile, she's about to lose the left-wing coalition.