Rory Stewart

That's one of Putin's judo principles as well.

Very good.

Well, they will have all concluded

that they were too restrained in their response to Israel and the US last time around.

That Hezbollah, in retrospect, should have launched 100,000 missiles into Israel straight after October the 7th.

That they should have hit back at the whole Gulf

and launched all their drones after the first two strikes, that they gave the impression to Israel and the US that they were weak and they gained nothing from it.

That everybody who had said to them, listen, if we keep our heads down,

Maybe they won't come after us.

What they've actually heard from Netanyahu and Trump is, we will not stop till we've wiped you out.

And if someone says to you, we will not stop till we've wiped you out, what possible incentive is there to restrain yourself in any way at all?

This is slight nuance, because this depends whether you buy into Shia theology.

Certainly true, Ayatollah Khomeini was a really major theological scholar.

In some ways, Shia Islam feels a bit like the Catholic Church, except the Pope-like figures

are these sources of emulation are often profound theologians.

The great example is Sistani, who's basically the big figure running this from Najaf.

Qom, which is the holy city in Iran, is where they all move through.

But don't underestimate the fact that when we say

that Mujtaba Khamenei is not a great theological scholar.

The guy has almost certainly memorized the entire Quran from one end to the other and could certainly spend nine or 10 days lecturing you on detailed surahs and theological implications.