Rory Stewart

Israel's furious.

They want to continue the war with Iran.

They want to continue the war with Lebanon.

They're being stopped not just in Iran and in Lebanon.

So the question is, is that going to be enough?

Will they be able to derail the US and Iran?

They've been able in the past because basically they do things in Lebanon without US permission.

The US feels forced to support them and the Iranians are outraged.

I think though what happened with this deal is finally the US and Iran decided we're going to get beyond the Israel thing.

We're going to see Israel as a spoiler.

Netanyahu tried a last-minute attempt to derail with, yes, another attack in Lebanon, and actually it just hurried up the MOU, which got it out.

I think the sticking points that could unravel it are, firstly, that there's a lot of legal argument inside the MOU, literal legal language, on a non-aggression pact between

the US and Iran, and on sanctions relief and release of assets.

And my guess is Trump will probably not follow through, particularly on the latter.

And then what is Iran going to do if he doesn't lift sanctions, if he doesn't release assets?

Do they return to war?

Well, the gamble is they might not.

Or do they just turn the tap off in the streets?

Well, on that one, the key two proxies are Hezbollah, Houthis, and probably you'd add the Iraqi militia, and actually what we found, oddly,

is that despite Israel's amazing intelligence operations and attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Pager attacks, which killed 1,500 people, Hezbollah remains surprisingly resilient.