Rory Stewart

Gas is a problem, partly because the Iranians attacked some of these gas fields.

Some of them will take two months, four months.

It's difficult to put a number on it to get going again.

Some percentage of it won't be able to get going again for some years.

None of these states still quite know, are Iran going to charge tolls?

Are they going to try to charge a million dollars a vessel?

They said they won't, but there's some weird, ambiguous language in the MOU.

Nobody can model this.

Nobody knows whether the impact, if you're a cattery,

Is it going to be, in the best case scenario, okay, there's been a bit of disruption for a few weeks, but we'll be able to get back to where we were within a year or two?

Or is it going to take three years or seven years?

Is your economy contracting 17% this year, 10% this year?

Dubai, I was talking to someone in the UAE who was being very optimistic and saying, listen, yes, Dubai is suffering, but people wrote us off in 2008.

They wrote us off in COVID and we bounced back, so we'll bounce back again.

But to be honest, nobody knows.

And it isn't just the Gulf.

As we've said before, the Asian economies are shattered by this.

The European economies are shattered by this.

And it's going to take a long time, even in the best case, to untangle.

Brilliant.