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Ruchir Sharma

πŸ‘€ Speaker
241 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

I mean, if I can say so, because I looked at all the literature going back to 1999.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

And what were people saying in 1999 as an example?

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

And I'll find you enough evidence there where people were worried sick that this was a bubble.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

In fact, there's a letter that a whole bunch of economists wrote to the Fed.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

I think this was in March of 1999, telling the Fed that we are in the midst of a bubble and something needs to be done about this.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

So the whole idea that a bubble will only be formed when no one talks about it, I think is not entirely true.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

And even the other bubbles I've seen, the Chinese equity market bubble, Japan in 1989.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

Now what's true is that the timing is so uncertain, and there's only one factor.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

So I tell people, which is this old line on Wall Street, which is that the fools may be dancing, but the bigger fools are watching.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

So that's exactly how you feel about where we are currently.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

Yeah, they get a lot of money.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

This movie we've seen before, this happens in every single bubble, including 99 is the most studied one, but Japan in 89, and the housing bubble in 2008, all these things happen.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

And these things can keep inflating.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

And my point is that in 300-year history of looking at bubbles, there's only one factor which deflates a bubble, only one.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

Moment of silence?

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

Yeah.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

Which is when interest rates go up.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

Until interest rates go up, the bubble will keep on inflating.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

So that's what, I mean, so you've got to make up your mind as to what you want to do, which is that the smart hedge funds, they're all saying that, listen, you know, we have to play this.

Unhedged
How to surf turbulent markets

So they're all in on this.