Ruchir Sharma
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Appearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
I mean, if I can say so, because I looked at all the literature going back to 1999.
And what were people saying in 1999 as an example?
And I'll find you enough evidence there where people were worried sick that this was a bubble.
In fact, there's a letter that a whole bunch of economists wrote to the Fed.
I think this was in March of 1999, telling the Fed that we are in the midst of a bubble and something needs to be done about this.
So the whole idea that a bubble will only be formed when no one talks about it, I think is not entirely true.
And even the other bubbles I've seen, the Chinese equity market bubble, Japan in 1989.
Now what's true is that the timing is so uncertain, and there's only one factor.
So I tell people, which is this old line on Wall Street, which is that the fools may be dancing, but the bigger fools are watching.
So that's exactly how you feel about where we are currently.
This movie we've seen before, this happens in every single bubble, including 99 is the most studied one, but Japan in 89, and the housing bubble in 2008, all these things happen.
And these things can keep inflating.
And my point is that in 300-year history of looking at bubbles, there's only one factor which deflates a bubble, only one.
Which is when interest rates go up.
Until interest rates go up, the bubble will keep on inflating.
So that's what, I mean, so you've got to make up your mind as to what you want to do, which is that the smart hedge funds, they're all saying that, listen, you know, we have to play this.