Rush Doshi

We basically think that scale is one of those factors that affects the rise and fall of great powers. Not all large countries are able to achieve scale. A lot of large countries don't become true great powers, but some do.

We basically think that scale is one of those factors that affects the rise and fall of great powers. Not all large countries are able to achieve scale. A lot of large countries don't become true great powers, but some do.

And when they're able to essentially take the efficiency models that smaller countries have sometimes developed first, think Great Britain, for example, during the first industrial revolution, and apply it on a larger foundation, they can be truly world-shaking. No one really expected that an island in the northwest corner of Europe would grow to dominate much of the world.

And when they're able to essentially take the efficiency models that smaller countries have sometimes developed first, think Great Britain, for example, during the first industrial revolution, and apply it on a larger foundation, they can be truly world-shaking. No one really expected that an island in the northwest corner of Europe would grow to dominate much of the world.

And Great Britain did it on the basis of a first mover advantage in the Industrial Revolution. But once those industrial methods proliferated out to other countries, especially larger countries, the British knew that essentially they would get outscaled. And in 1883, a top British nobleman, a guy named Lord Seeley, wrote essentially that Great Britain might go the same way that Florence went.

And Great Britain did it on the basis of a first mover advantage in the Industrial Revolution. But once those industrial methods proliferated out to other countries, especially larger countries, the British knew that essentially they would get outscaled. And in 1883, a top British nobleman, a guy named Lord Seeley, wrote essentially that Great Britain might go the same way that Florence went.

was outscaled by the great country states of Europe in the 16th century, so too could Great Britain be outscaled by the great powers of the US, Russia, and Germany in the 19th and 20th centuries. And that's essentially exactly what happened. And the question today is, does the US have sufficient scale vis-a-vis China? And I'll end by just noting, China has twice the U.S. manufacturing capability.

was outscaled by the great country states of Europe in the 16th century, so too could Great Britain be outscaled by the great powers of the US, Russia, and Germany in the 19th and 20th centuries. And that's essentially exactly what happened. And the question today is, does the US have sufficient scale vis-a-vis China? And I'll end by just noting, China has twice the U.S. manufacturing capability.

It's on track to achieve four times the U.S. manufacturing capability by 2030, according to the United Nations. It's four times the U.S. population. It's investing heavily in the industries of the future. On a lot of different metrics, it actually outscales the U.S. And the only path for the U.S.

It's on track to achieve four times the U.S. manufacturing capability by 2030, according to the United Nations. It's four times the U.S. population. It's investing heavily in the industries of the future. On a lot of different metrics, it actually outscales the U.S. And the only path for the U.S.

to achieve the kind of scale that eluded Great Britain is in common cause with allies through a kind of new capacity-centric statecraft that Kurt and I lay out in the piece.

to achieve the kind of scale that eluded Great Britain is in common cause with allies through a kind of new capacity-centric statecraft that Kurt and I lay out in the piece.

Let's just take China for a moment. I mentioned their manufacturing capability being twice the U.S. That's a value added share of global manufacturing. But if you look at just raw productive capacity and you don't think about the value added component, China's scale there is almost three times the U.S. That ability to manufacture has a lot of advantages for an economy.

Let's just take China for a moment. I mentioned their manufacturing capability being twice the U.S. That's a value added share of global manufacturing. But if you look at just raw productive capacity and you don't think about the value added component, China's scale there is almost three times the U.S. That ability to manufacture has a lot of advantages for an economy.

First, it has advantages in wartime. It can lead to enormous production. But manufacturing also matters in a second dimension, which is for technological advancement. A lot of innovation comes from the factory floor. It's incremental. A lot of process knowledge and tacit knowledge comes from manufacturing. And even financial advantages can sometimes emerge from being the world's manufacturer.

First, it has advantages in wartime. It can lead to enormous production. But manufacturing also matters in a second dimension, which is for technological advancement. A lot of innovation comes from the factory floor. It's incremental. A lot of process knowledge and tacit knowledge comes from manufacturing. And even financial advantages can sometimes emerge from being the world's manufacturer.

That was certainly what happened to the U.S. And today that prowess is held by China. If you look at the statistics, Lynn, it's really shocking. I mean, China is twice U.S. power generation, three times U.S. car production, 11 times U.S. steel production, 20 times U.S. cement production.

That was certainly what happened to the U.S. And today that prowess is held by China. If you look at the statistics, Lynn, it's really shocking. I mean, China is twice U.S. power generation, three times U.S. car production, 11 times U.S. steel production, 20 times U.S. cement production.

In global market share, it's two-thirds of all electric vehicles, 80% of electric vehicle batteries, 80% of drones, 90% of uncrewed systems or UAVs or unmanned systems, as some call them. and more than 90% of solar panels and critical minerals. And if you look to the future, manufacturing is going to be dominated by robotics.

In global market share, it's two-thirds of all electric vehicles, 80% of electric vehicle batteries, 80% of drones, 90% of uncrewed systems or UAVs or unmanned systems, as some call them. and more than 90% of solar panels and critical minerals. And if you look to the future, manufacturing is going to be dominated by robotics.