Ryan Kidd

I'm glad to be here.

I like to think we didn't buy our way onto the podcast.

Yeah.

Yeah, okay.

So I don't like to have opinions here, or I don't like to have opinions very loudly.

And the reason for that, I think, is because as you say, we are somewhat like a hedge fund or something, or maybe an index fund, right?

More likely, which is to say, like, we have a broad portfolio, we adopt a bunch of different theories of change as valid, and we try and like, you know, have our thumb in 100 pies.

So

I would say in terms of Mass's institutional opinion on this, definitely we tend to go with things like Metaculous and prediction markets and the Forecasting Research Institute, FRI, their predictions and so on.

So the current Metaculous prediction for strong AGI, I think it's called, which is, I think you can ignore most of the requirements of the test and just look at one of them, which is the two-hour adversarial Turing test.

That's predicted somewhere around mid-2033.

Okay, so I think that is probably the best button we have for when AGI of that nature occurs.

Now we recently just had two days ago, or three days ago perhaps, dropped this new AI Futures project, dropped this new report.

which two Matz fellows were, one is a lead author, one is a contributing author on.

So very excited about that.

And that just was updating their model.

And I think they predicted something between 2031, well, 2030 to 2032, depending upon how you define AGI.

They broke it down to all these automated coders.

They can do all the coding stuff, these top expert dominating AI across all these fields and so on.

So I think, I don't know, somewhere around 2033 seems like a decent bet.