Ryan Petersen

So when there was no capacity, we went out and signed these long-term deals. So we're sort of, I wouldn't say stuck with it because I would do that deal again 10 times out of 10. It's made a lot of money over its lifetime. But at the moment, we have some assets that are, it's the asset-owning logistics companies that are going to feel the pain here.

If you don't have any assets, you kind of flow with the tide. But if you have assets, you know, you could be underwater forever.

If you don't have any assets, you kind of flow with the tide. But if you have assets, you know, you could be underwater forever.

If you don't have any assets, you kind of flow with the tide. But if you have assets, you know, you could be underwater forever.

Maybe, but like, you know, a lot of these analyses forget that trade is not zero-sum, it's positive-sum. By definition, both parties are better off when they do trade. That's why they do it. And so, I mean, if the U.S. backs off here, it's going to lead to recession all over the place. There'll be less consumer demand in other markets. It's like these very complex...

Maybe, but like, you know, a lot of these analyses forget that trade is not zero-sum, it's positive-sum. By definition, both parties are better off when they do trade. That's why they do it. And so, I mean, if the U.S. backs off here, it's going to lead to recession all over the place. There'll be less consumer demand in other markets. It's like these very complex...

Maybe, but like, you know, a lot of these analyses forget that trade is not zero-sum, it's positive-sum. By definition, both parties are better off when they do trade. That's why they do it. And so, I mean, if the U.S. backs off here, it's going to lead to recession all over the place. There'll be less consumer demand in other markets. It's like these very complex...

systems with second or even the second order effects are hard to model, much less third, fourth order. So it will not be like a graceful transition and, oh, now I'll just sell it to someone else. I mean, you would have sold to them already if you could have, right? So it's going to be kind of ugly. And then the big thing that people are missing here is, let's say they go do a deal right now.

systems with second or even the second order effects are hard to model, much less third, fourth order. So it will not be like a graceful transition and, oh, now I'll just sell it to someone else. I mean, you would have sold to them already if you could have, right? So it's going to be kind of ugly. And then the big thing that people are missing here is, let's say they go do a deal right now.

systems with second or even the second order effects are hard to model, much less third, fourth order. So it will not be like a graceful transition and, oh, now I'll just sell it to someone else. I mean, you would have sold to them already if you could have, right? So it's going to be kind of ugly. And then the big thing that people are missing here is, let's say they go do a deal right now.

Well, 50% of bookings for the last two weeks, the ocean freight market has gone down by 50%. Some of Scott's buddies, right? They've canceled their orders. Well, if a deal gets done, all of that stuff's going to flow at once, and you won't have enough space on ships. And meantime, the ocean carriers have already started canceling services, moving ships to Southeast Asia.

Well, 50% of bookings for the last two weeks, the ocean freight market has gone down by 50%. Some of Scott's buddies, right? They've canceled their orders. Well, if a deal gets done, all of that stuff's going to flow at once, and you won't have enough space on ships. And meantime, the ocean carriers have already started canceling services, moving ships to Southeast Asia.

Well, 50% of bookings for the last two weeks, the ocean freight market has gone down by 50%. Some of Scott's buddies, right? They've canceled their orders. Well, if a deal gets done, all of that stuff's going to flow at once, and you won't have enough space on ships. And meantime, the ocean carriers have already started canceling services, moving ships to Southeast Asia.

moving containers down there, and you're going to wake up. Every week that goes on, this problem is going to compound. But you'll wake up and go, oh, my goodness, trade is back. Maybe not to where it was. Maybe it's down a little bit, but it comes back a lot more than 50% down where it is now. But the ships aren't here. The containers aren't here.

moving containers down there, and you're going to wake up. Every week that goes on, this problem is going to compound. But you'll wake up and go, oh, my goodness, trade is back. Maybe not to where it was. Maybe it's down a little bit, but it comes back a lot more than 50% down where it is now. But the ships aren't here. The containers aren't here.

moving containers down there, and you're going to wake up. Every week that goes on, this problem is going to compound. But you'll wake up and go, oh, my goodness, trade is back. Maybe not to where it was. Maybe it's down a little bit, but it comes back a lot more than 50% down where it is now. But the ships aren't here. The containers aren't here.

And you're going to get back to these bottleneck situations that we had in COVID where the price of freight goes crazy. So we're sitting here modeling these scenarios. We're like, all right, either it all goes to hell, And you're down 100, you know, the duties stay at 145%. Volumes are way down. We got to make all these contingency plans for that world.

And you're going to get back to these bottleneck situations that we had in COVID where the price of freight goes crazy. So we're sitting here modeling these scenarios. We're like, all right, either it all goes to hell, And you're down 100, you know, the duties stay at 145%. Volumes are way down. We got to make all these contingency plans for that world.

And you're going to get back to these bottleneck situations that we had in COVID where the price of freight goes crazy. So we're sitting here modeling these scenarios. We're like, all right, either it all goes to hell, And you're down 100, you know, the duties stay at 145%. Volumes are way down. We got to make all these contingency plans for that world.

Or the opposite, where the price of freight goes crazy and I can't get anything loaded and we're scrambling. It's like super like long tail effects in both directions. It's very hard to make decisions as a logistics operator right now.