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Ryan Petersen

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
2037 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

So Shopify owns 20% of Flexport. So I follow everything Toby says very closely. He's kind of my boss on some level. They got a board seat. And I actually took his AI memo and put it in a chat GPT and said, rewrite this and pretend the CEO of Flexport wrote it so I can send it to my employees. I haven't hit send on that yet. You do that too, huh? Might send that one out soon.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

So Shopify owns 20% of Flexport. So I follow everything Toby says very closely. He's kind of my boss on some level. They got a board seat. And I actually took his AI memo and put it in a chat GPT and said, rewrite this and pretend the CEO of Flexport wrote it so I can send it to my employees. I haven't hit send on that yet. You do that too, huh? Might send that one out soon.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

So if you take like, let's take normal conditions, which we haven't seen in 10 years or something in logistics, but take normal long run average for the last 30 years is like, cost you about $2,000 to ship a container from Asia to the US. So let's just say we go back to that world. The cost of the freight forwarders keep 20%.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

So if you take like, let's take normal conditions, which we haven't seen in 10 years or something in logistics, but take normal long run average for the last 30 years is like, cost you about $2,000 to ship a container from Asia to the US. So let's just say we go back to that world. The cost of the freight forwarders keep 20%.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

So if you take like, let's take normal conditions, which we haven't seen in 10 years or something in logistics, but take normal long run average for the last 30 years is like, cost you about $2,000 to ship a container from Asia to the US. So let's just say we go back to that world. The cost of the freight forwarders keep 20%.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

And 80% gets paid to the people that own the ships and the trucks and own the assets. They deserve that, at least that. So, okay, of the 20%, of the $400 the freight forwarder is keeping on this, half of that is going to labor costs of coordinating the shipment, what I call freight email forwarding, to pushing docks, making phone calls. Not the blue-collar guys driving forklifts.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

And 80% gets paid to the people that own the ships and the trucks and own the assets. They deserve that, at least that. So, okay, of the 20%, of the $400 the freight forwarder is keeping on this, half of that is going to labor costs of coordinating the shipment, what I call freight email forwarding, to pushing docks, making phone calls. Not the blue-collar guys driving forklifts.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

And 80% gets paid to the people that own the ships and the trucks and own the assets. They deserve that, at least that. So, okay, of the 20%, of the $400 the freight forwarder is keeping on this, half of that is going to labor costs of coordinating the shipment, what I call freight email forwarding, to pushing docks, making phone calls. Not the blue-collar guys driving forklifts.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Like, this is the service jobs, desk jobs. We believe we can take about 80% of that cost out in the next two, three years, largely because of AI. And if you asked me that three years ago, I'd be like, eh, stuff's pretty hard to automate. You know, it turns out there's a million edge cases that you can't put into rules engines and you need people that are smart that can do it.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Like, this is the service jobs, desk jobs. We believe we can take about 80% of that cost out in the next two, three years, largely because of AI. And if you asked me that three years ago, I'd be like, eh, stuff's pretty hard to automate. You know, it turns out there's a million edge cases that you can't put into rules engines and you need people that are smart that can do it.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Like, this is the service jobs, desk jobs. We believe we can take about 80% of that cost out in the next two, three years, largely because of AI. And if you asked me that three years ago, I'd be like, eh, stuff's pretty hard to automate. You know, it turns out there's a million edge cases that you can't put into rules engines and you need people that are smart that can do it.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Now we're finding about 1% weekly, the ability to automate about 1% of that work every week. It's kind of crazy. And so we think 80% in the next few years is totally possible. That means you reduce, in a steady state world without craziness, you're reducing the cost of shipping anything by about 8%. So that would be huge for consumers.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Now we're finding about 1% weekly, the ability to automate about 1% of that work every week. It's kind of crazy. And so we think 80% in the next few years is totally possible. That means you reduce, in a steady state world without craziness, you're reducing the cost of shipping anything by about 8%. So that would be huge for consumers.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Now we're finding about 1% weekly, the ability to automate about 1% of that work every week. It's kind of crazy. And so we think 80% in the next few years is totally possible. That means you reduce, in a steady state world without craziness, you're reducing the cost of shipping anything by about 8%. So that would be huge for consumers.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Now we might decide to keep all that for my margin and be the highest margin freight forwarder in the world. Our view is much more give it back to the customer, drive more scale. But the correct answer is probably some choice in there. So that's one. Number one, the thing that people care about is price. It can lower the cost.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Now we might decide to keep all that for my margin and be the highest margin freight forwarder in the world. Our view is much more give it back to the customer, drive more scale. But the correct answer is probably some choice in there. So that's one. Number one, the thing that people care about is price. It can lower the cost.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Now we might decide to keep all that for my margin and be the highest margin freight forwarder in the world. Our view is much more give it back to the customer, drive more scale. But the correct answer is probably some choice in there. So that's one. Number one, the thing that people care about is price. It can lower the cost.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Two, a lot of these supply chains are about data, data to make good decisions. How many units should I order? When should I order them? Where should I position them? How should I engineer them from a tariff standpoint? These types of things.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Two, a lot of these supply chains are about data, data to make good decisions. How many units should I order? When should I order them? Where should I position them? How should I engineer them from a tariff standpoint? These types of things.

Prof G Markets
Why Trump Will Back Down on China Tariffs โ€” ft. Ryan Petersen

Two, a lot of these supply chains are about data, data to make good decisions. How many units should I order? When should I order them? Where should I position them? How should I engineer them from a tariff standpoint? These types of things.